Saturday, November 30, 2019

Preparing for the Coming Storm: Poland Repatriates 100 Tonnes of Gold from Bank of England

It was just last week that I highlighted how a new Central Bank, albeit much smaller than some of the current key players, has entered into the precious metals market, drastically increasing their gold reserves in the process.

This new player was Serbia, who stated that they are hoping to increase their gold reserves in the face of mounting geopolitical uncertainty, uncertainty that seems to only be getting worse, not better with each passing day.

In just one month, Serbia increased their gold reserves by 1/3rd, by adding 9 tonnes of gold in that short window of time. This may not seem like a lot compared to some of the largest gold players, but to Serbia, it was a massive acquirement and is likely only just the beginning.

Not to be outdone, one of the rising stars in the precious metals space, Poland has announced another move that has surprised many in the bullion markets, while others simply nod their heads, acknowledging the trend that is now solidifying within the physical bullion markets.

The Central Bank’s governor, Adam Glapinski, announced on Monday that Poland had repatriated 100 tonnes of its gold from the Bank of England, while stating the following;

"The gold symbolizes the strength of the country,”

Also, Glapinski stated that Poland could sell these gold reserves for "billions" in profit, but had no intentions of doing so, as they are looking to increase their position in the yellow metal, not decrease.

The Central Bank of Poland has also stated that they will be repatriated more gold, of which roughly half is still held by the Central Bank of England, as they deem needed.

Taking to twitter, Poland showcased their recently returned wealth in a photo op;

The previous mentioned statement, indicating that the gold they repatriated from the UK symbolizes the strength of the country, is one that bears great mention, as it is a lesson that many in the financial industry have sadly forgotten, as gold has been a bulwark in times of great unrest and geopolitical uncertainty, times such as those that we now find ourselves living in.

Poland, along with Russia, China, Hungary, India, Serbia and many others are not ignorant of this fact and it is exactly why so many of these Central Banks are gobbling up every ounce of gold bullion that they can get their hands on, while tossing away as many fiat US dollars as they can.

They know that in the end, when the "you know what" hits the fan, that it is gold bullion that will offer protection, not fiat money, as it has been since golds inception into mankinds financial history, a history that spans over 10,000 years.

Unfortunately, these risks do indeed appear to be growing once again, as the situation with the China / US trade wars once again took a turn for the worse, after this week's event saw the United States sign the "Hong Kong Democracy Bill", a move that has "infuriated" Chinese officials and one that they vow will cause retaliation, although they have not stated what that retaliation will be as of yet.

Additional, with President Trump completely bogged down with the Impeachment circus show, talks with North Korea have all but evaporated, as the administration is too focused on dealing with the battering ram at their door, rather than what is outside of their immediate line of sight.

This has caused North Korea to once again lash out as they feel like they are being ignored, firing numerous test missiles over the last few days, once again raising tensions with neighboring countries and the world at large.

With all of the current nonsense unfolding around the world, more Central Banks around the world, especially those in the West should be following the example being set forth by net gold positive Central Banks, such as those in Russia, China, Poland and others.

Gold is needed now, gold will be needed in the future. It is the ultimate insurance policy and individuals who act before it is needed will be protected from the coming storm, those who don't, risk being washed away. 

Prepare accordingly. Keep stacking.

- As first seen on the Sprott Money Blog

Wednesday, November 27, 2019

How to Hold Your IRA Outside of the System

You've worked hard and spent a big part of your life blood, sweat, and tears building up a retirement account. You may want to get some or all of your retirement saving out of the banks, out of Wall Street, out of stocks, out of bonds, and out of brokerage houses. 

But how can you protect your hard-earned nest egg from the whims of the stock and bond market bubbles, trade wars, and risk of banking collapse? 

You might be glad to learn that a decades-old tax law provides for ordinary people to protect their retirement savings outside the system, such as in gold & silver, cryptos, or real-estate, by following IRS guideline that you're not being told about! 

Will Lehr, managing partner of Perpetual Assets, returns to Reluctant Preppers to outline the proven path to protecting yourself by taking advantage of this little-known legal provision for holding & managing your own investments outside the banking or Wall Street system!

Monday, November 25, 2019

Ron Paul: Federal Reserve, the Enemy of Liberty and Prosperity

Ron Paul breaks down the extreme manipulation of the Federal Reserve in the open markets. He states that they are the enemy of the free people and prosperity.

Can the Federal Reserve solve the upcoming financial crisis, or are they simply the problem?

Ron Paul breaks down the current manipulation of the system and the ramifications that it is going to have in the future.

- Source, Ron Paul

Saturday, November 23, 2019

Serbia Significantly Expands Gold Reserves Due to Increased Geopolitical Uncertainty

The Federal Reserve continues to pump liquidity into the markets, rapidly expanding their balance sheets and flooding the system with cheap money. 

This comes in spite of the fact they state the markets are currently "healthy" and that all is good for the time being.

Many may be lulled to sleep and put to ease by this double speak, however, there are many others around the globe that are not viewing the current state of affairs through rose colored glasses and are doing the smart thing, preparing for the inevitable crisis that is currently brewing, lying in wait just below the surface.

Easy money and quantitative easing has kept the markets artificially inflated for the last few years, leading to a booming economy for those who have had the luxury of taking advantage of this scenario, while others have been left behind in the dust, languishing and never fully recovering from the 2008 crisis, a crisis that has only been papered over.

Adding to this problem is the fact that we are currently living in a period of great geopolitical unrest, even if most people in the West are largely unaware of the incredibly volatile position the world now finds itself in.

Trade wars are commonplace, as the old norms of trade continue to break down. President Trump has taken a sledge hammer to past traditions, as he attempts to establish his "America First" policy, hoping that in the long run it will place the United States in a much stronger position.

Whether or not you believe this to be working largely depends on which side of the political spectrum you find yourself on, a spectrum that seemingly continues to grow further and further apart with each passing day, largely driven by the constant negative and incredibly biased coverage coming from the Mainstream Media.

While the West largely remains asleep at the wheel, happily plowing their hard earned fiat savings into a ballooning stock market, ignoring the vital protection of precious metals in these precarious times, others around the world are waking up and taking appropriate measures.

Countries such as Russia and China have been steadily and consistently accumulating precious metals while exciting their US dollar positions.

Collectively, already, both Russia and China combined have bought a staggering 251 tonnes of gold in 2019 alone! With the formers gold reserves now estimated to be at $109.5 billion, making them a true juggernaut in the precious metals arena.

Other countries, such as India, Poland, Hungary, Turkey and many others have also been accumulating the king of metals, steadily adding to their gold reserves, while exiting out of their USD reserve positions as well.

Now we can add one more name to that list, with Serbia recently announcing that they have been buying gold bullion, with their Central Bank being instructed to do so by their President, Aleksandar Vucic.

As reported by Russia Today;

"Central bank Governor Jorgovanka Tabakovic said the country paid about $434 million for the gold it bought last month, or $1,503 an ounce. Tabakovic said the acquisition is the latest in a series of moves to shore up financial stability by changing the structure of foreign debt and increasing the share of dinars and euros."

President Aleksandar Vucic gives his reasoning for entering into the precious metals space;

“I think we’ll continue doing that because of what we see in which direction the crisis in the world is moving,”

As indicated, he can see the incredible uncertainty that the world currently faces and is attempting to prepare his country financially, as best as he can, adding 9 tonnes of gold reserves last month.

This expands Serbias gold reserves by almost 1/3rd in just one month, bringing their total reported reserves to 30 tonnes of gold bullion.

Eventually, there is going to be a breaking point, in which the physical markets can no longer handle the demand from these countries hoping to expand their gold reserves and protect themselves. 

At this point the flood gates are going to be kicked open and the dam that has been artificially holding precious metals back is going to break, sending prices catapulting higher.

When this day will come is unknown, as the "powers to be" have already proven just how capable they are with keeping a lid on gold and silver prices, however, I have no doubt that the day will eventually come.

Until this day, enjoy the discounts and keep stacking knowing that eventually you will be handsomely rewarded.

- Source, As first seen on the Sprott Money Blog

Friday, November 22, 2019

Will the Chinese Yuan Replace the US Dollar as Reserve Currency?

Legendary emerging markets investor Mark Mobius, founder of Mobius Capital Partners, sits down with Roger Hirst to articulate his contrarian venture into active management while providing a unique perspective on recent developments in China and Hong Kong. 

Mobius illustrates how central banks have altered the global investment landscape, highlights risks with both the U.S. Dollar and the Chinese Renminbi, and reveals where he sees opportunity for growth. 

He also talks about the evolution of ESG investing, and explains how investing in firms based on healthy environmental, social and corporate governance actually produces better returns.

Thursday, November 21, 2019

Tallest Towers & Biggest Debt Deals Warn of Next Major Fall

Pride Comes Before The…? Tallest towers & biggest debt deals warn of next major fall. Walgreens Buyout - Does $70 billion seem high? Knowing when to leave - CEO departures hit all time high.

Wednesday, November 20, 2019

Bill Murphy: Gold Looks Different This Time

Bill Murphy, co-founder of the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA) and a champion for legal and honest precious metals markets, returns to Finance and Liberty to update us on the fallout from the recent action by the DOJ against JP Morgan’s gold trading desk as a “criminal enterprise.”

Tuesday, November 19, 2019

The RISE Of Gold: Will We See Gold Skyrocket As People Flee The Dollar?

Josh Sigurdson talks with John Anderson of Triumph Gold Corp about the rise of gold and why gold and silver as well as mining companies are so lucrative going forward as people pile out of the economy in fear of a complete collapse. 

While recession woes continue, gold and silver have had a good year and it's no doubt that people are looking at history as a lesson when it comes to the historic support for precious metals. 

John Anderson breaks down why he thinks gold will do well in the future as well how companies such as his own (Triumph Gold Corp) will do in a time of great "triumph" for gold.

- Source, WAM

Monday, November 18, 2019

John Rubino: All Hell Breaks Loose When Everything Falls Apart

Financial writer and book author John Rubino points out, “Fear is the enemy in a fiat currency system. Everything is based on our assumption that the guys in charge know what they are doing and that the confidence in them is good. 

You take that away, and they let us see them sweat, and it’s over. There is no real bottom for the dollar, euro or the yen. Their intrinsic value is zero. 

When the economic players out there in the global financial system realize that the central banks of the world are out of ammo, and nothing these guys do is going to fix our problem, then all hell breaks loose.

What worries me about today’s world is that everything falls apart all at once, and there is no way to fix what went wrong.

We have a lot of examples of governments doing crazy things when everything falls apart.”

- Source, USA Watchdog

Saturday, November 16, 2019

Pot Calls Kettle Black: Fed Lectures Congress Over Ballooning Deficits

Did I hear correctly, or have I truly gone mad? Did Jerome Powell, the head of the Federal Reserve actually lecture Congress over their ballooning debt levels and out of control spending?

After reconfirming and double checking, no, my sanity is still intact and yes, the Federal Reserve, who know nothing else, other than printing fiat funny money into oblivion, is actually lecturing Congress on the path that the United States is heading down, one which now sees the National Debt level at a stunning $24 Trillion and growing with each passing second.

The irony is just too sweet, as the Federal Reserve are the kings of debt and the facilitators of this out of control debt, highlighted by their recent actions in the overnight lending repo markets, of which they have been vigorous plugging holes, throwing ungodly amounts of money at the problem and ballooning their own balance sheets in the process.

Regardless of this "pot calling the kettle black" scenario, the Federal Reserve is not incorrect in their assessment, as government deficits have indeed been exploding higher as of lately, accelerating at an alarming pace.

In fact, the latest Treasury Department Report, which was just released on October 31st, highlights just how much the deficit has been growing, with last month's shortfall being 34% higher than the same time period in 2018, hitting $134.5 billion in just one month!

Projections for the 2020 deficit don't get any better, with estimates indicating that the deficit will surpass the $1 Trillion mark, a number that was only reached previously in the years following the 2008 crisis.

This is happening in the "good" times and this is exactly why Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is ringing the alarm bells over Congress's head, as he knows that the Fed will not be able to bail out the markets like they did during the 2008 crisis. 

Perhaps, as the Fed's very own words are indicating, they know that they are out of bullets this time around, with interest rates at already historically low levels.

Below are just a few of the alarming statements that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell told Congress during Wednesdays meeting;

“The federal budget is on an unsustainable path, with high and rising debt,”

“Over time, this outlook could restrain fiscal policy makers’ willingness or ability to support economic activity during a downturn.”

In addition to this "talk down", the Fed Chairman also reiterated his previous position, that the Fed has no intentions of lowering interest rates anytime soon, unless the economy takes a nose dive lower in the coming months.

The broader markets appear to believe this recent hawkish stance that the Fed has adopted, with the odds plummeting for a rate cut at the next Fed meeting.

As it stands today, the markets believe that there is a 96.3% chance that rates will not be changed at the next months Fed meeting.

This is likely to be the case and I would say that these odds are absolutely correct, as the damage to the Feds reputation would be severe indeed if they continued to lower rates after all this hawkish talk of lately and especially after they just wagged their fingers at Congress for their reckless spending.

Still, 2020 is an entirely different ball game and I expect continued intervention in the markets on behalf of the Federal Reserve, continued excessive spending and record deficits from Congress and extreme volatility as we head into the 2020 elections, the latter of which I believe are going to be incredibly violent and nasty, leading to even further division within the United States.

All of this is a recipe for higher gold and silver prices, who as of the start of November have been suffering under renewed attacks against their prices and are thus trading at a discount to what I believe to be much higher future prices.

Until then, keep stacking and ignore the noise.

- As first seen on the Sprott Money Blog

Thursday, November 14, 2019

Harry Dent: What Does Wall Street See that These Charts Don’t?

Wall Street continues to be convinced that the economy is edging back up again after a stall following the tax cut boost and near 3% GDP figures in 2018.

I talked last Monday about how there were some key indicators like industrial production growth and construction spending that were not confirming such a resurgence… at least not yet. And such falling trends tend to be a leading indicator of falling profits.

This chart is more disturbing, as it comes from those very CEOs that got the direct benefits from the tax cuts at the beginning of 2018. Their confidence in the economy is not just slowing, it is plunging!

They clearly and haven’t been making significant investments in new capacity as they don’t need it. The publicly-traded ones are buying their own stocks to goose earnings per share instead.

But are they seeing signs of declining demand from their customers? Are they worried about Trump getting impeached and ending the corporate tax and deregulation gravy train? All, legitimate concerns, which could accelerate the pending financial crisis. Wall Street is clearly not reacting much to that threat yet.

The next chart also clearly shows that earnings per share are cratering as well. Part of that is to be expected as the surge from the tax cuts does not continue forward. But the actual 4% decline in the third quarter should be alarming.

This combination of indicators simply does not bode well for the stock market, yet it keeps edging up. How long can the markets continue to be divorced from Main Street and the real world?

So, what does Wall Street see that these charts don’t?

Good question…

I say it simply sees “more crack” from lower rates and more QE.

How much longer can that last?

- Source, Harry Dent via Economy and Markets

Wednesday, November 13, 2019

Palisade Radio: A Financial Crisis is on the Way & Will Push Gold Much Higher

Sam discusses how 2015 was the bottom of the bear market for gold and why he doubts that we will ever see those levels again. 

Gold may retest the 2016 highs over the next month and then head higher by the end of this year. 

Sam believes that markets are inefficient and that underlying systemic risks have yet to be priced into gold. He recommends investors keep a close eye on the Fed's balance sheet over the next few months. 

Don't try and call markets but instead diversify your portfolio and invest in physical if you believe in gold.

- Source, Palisade Radio

When the Market Crashes, How Do You Continue to Profit?

Hedge fund manager and author Hari Krishnan, portfolio manager at Doherty Advisors, breaks down his analysis of hedging and profiting from market downturns, concluding with his view of the risks and opportunities.

- Source, Real Vision

This is A Big Deal in the Context of the Biggest Financial Bubble Ever Blown

“I’ll emphasize again the profound change possibly happening in bond yields overseas and what that can mean for US yields. The Japanese 10 yr JGB yield jumped another 4.3 bps to just a hair below zero at -.02%. This is the least negative since mid April and is now really jumping. 

In response, the Topix bank stock index is at the highest since April. Last week there was a soft 10 yr auction and today was a messy 30 yr auction. I’ll repeat, for the first time in more than 20 years of BOJ easing, they are telling everyone that they want higher long term interest rates in order to breath some life into their banks. 

This is a big deal in the context of the biggest financial bubble ever blown. Sorry for the hyperbole. Yields are up slightly in Europe and the US 10 yr is at 1.94-.95%.

The October NFIB small business optimism index improved by .6 pts m/o/m to 102.4 after falling in the two prior months by a total of 2.9 pts. For perspective, this number has averaged 102.9 year to date and the peak in the expansion was 108.8 in August 2018 just as the tariff fight was about to intensify. 

After falling by 3 pts in September, Plans to Hire rose by 1 pt but finding the needed help is still the big challenge. With this, current Compensation Plans rose by 1 pt while future Comp Plans jumped by 4 pts to the highest since May…"

- Source, Peter Boockvar via King World News, read more here

Tuesday, November 12, 2019

Forget Current Prices, Investors Need to Add More Gold Now

Although gold prices have seen a slump recently, investors should not take this is as a bearish sign and instead, consider adding more of the yellow metal to their portfolio, this according to Frank Holmes, CEO of U.S. Global Investors. 

Holmes noted that gold stocks and gold bullion are currently underweighted in investors’ portfolios. “When you look at Canada, and you look at the index and percentage of gold stocks, they’re extremely underweighted,” he said.

- Source, Kitco News

Chinese Central Bank Gold Buying, On a Need to Know Basis Only

After announcing monthly gold purchases for ten straight months between December 2018 and September 2019, the Chinese central bank, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC), has now paused buying for its strategic gold reserves.

At least that’s according to October figures from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), China’s currency management agent, which each month announces the value of China’s foreign exchange and gold holdings for the previous month-end.

Given the pause or halt last month in China’s gold accumulation, the strategic gold reserves of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) now remain unchanged at 1948 tonnes for October. But for ten months back-to-back between December and September, the Chinese central bank claims to have added a total of 106 tonnes of monetary gold to its reserves, taking China’s strategic gold stockpile from a reported 1842 tonnes at the end of November 2018 to the current total of 1948 tonnes.

Chinese central bank gold reserves – No buying in October

However, as with a lot of official Chinese figures, there is widespread skepticism about China’s official gold holding figures, as well as a widely held belief that the Chinese state holds far more gold than it claims to hold. This view subscribes to the opinion that China prefers to keep a large part of its gold reserves unreported as it continues to accumulate monetary gold towards or above the holdings of other economic blocs such as the Euro area or US.

A Trail of Crumbs

That’s not to say that criticism leveled against China in not being forthcoming about its national gold reserves could not be leveled against practically all the world’s central banks and monetary authorities. It could. I do not even know of even one central bank that is fully transparent about its gold holdings. Yet in a world of central bank gold holdings opacity, these official gold figures and their trajectories are arguably better than no figures at all. Crumbs to follow a trail. But better than no crumbs to follow.

Putting aside this empirical drawback, why has China decided to pause or halt state its gold buying now? In reality, the Chinese state probably has not stopped buying gold, but rather it wants to signal that it has, to perhaps thaw relations in its ongoing trade war with the US.

To see China’s stop-start gold accumulation and how it announces additions to its gold reserves when it feels like it or when politically expedient to do so, it’s instructive to look back at China’s track record in communicating its gold buying since the early 2000s. And the track record is not a pretty one when plotted on a chart, filled as it is with years and years of flat-lining, intermittent chunky jumps, and at times sporadic series of monthly moves upwards.

In early January 2002, the Chinese central bank revealed that its gold reserves stood at 500 tonnes. Previously, in late 2001, the PBoC had been reporting gold holdings of 394 tonnes, a figure which had not changed since 1980. So where did this 106 tonnes of gold come from and when was it bought?

On the Q.T.

Then towards the end of 2002, the PBoC updated its gold holdings to 600 tonnes, implying that it had purchased another 100 tonnes in less than a year. When were these purchases made? Following this for more than six years, Chinese central bank gold reserves remained completely static. In theory that it, for in April 2009 the PBoC made a shock announcement that its gold reserves now totaled 1054 tonnes. When was this 454 tonnes of gold purchased? In the world of physical gold accumulation, it is not physically possible to suddenly add 454 tonnes of gold to a central bank’s holdings by buying on the open market. True, there could have been a transfer from one central bank or the other, but no other central banks had significant corresponding gold outflows on or around that time. And we also know that the PBoC buys gold under the radar on the international market, such as in London and Hong Kong, using commercial bank agents.

As Reuters noted at the time on Friday 24th April 2009:

“China disclosed on Friday that it had secretly raised its gold reserves by three-quarters since 2003, increasing its holdings to 1,054 tonnes and confirming years of speculation it had been buying.“

So China was buying secretly, on the q.t. Fast forward to July 2015, and the Chinese central bank did it again, announcing that it now held 1658 tonnes of gold. Another six years of static gold reserves from April 2009, and then suddenly a 604 tonne addition. When was this 604 tonnes bought? Certainly not in July 2015. Rather the PBoC continually accumulates gold, and makes announcements about its gold holdings how and when it feels like it, keeping tight-lipped for most of the time.

As the Financial Times noted in its July 2015 article “China breaks 6-year silence on gold reserves“:

“China ended years of speculation about its official gold holdings by revealing an almost 60 per cent jump in its reserves since 2009.”

Again we see in July 2015 that China for whatever reason broke its six year silence about its gold buying, not that it suddenly started buying. July 2015 also saw the PBoC begin announcing monthly gold purchases, something it continued to do until October 2016, during that time claiming that Chinese strategic gold reserves rose from 1658 to 1842 tonnes, an addition of 184 tonnes. The monthly gold buying announcements began, according to the PBoC, because it decided that it would follow the IMF’s Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS) for the IMF international reserves reporting template which requires contributing countries to provide updated gold reserve data to the IMF on a regular basis.

Then why did China stop announcing gold purchases in October 2016 all the way through to December 2018? If you asked the PBoC, it would answer ‘because we didn’t buy any gold during that time’. But how believable is that when China at times went for years without announcing gold purchases, only to then announce massive gold reserve increases? The same goes for China’s monthly gold purchase increases for ten straight months between December 2018 and September 2019.

On paper, there is no consistency in the communication of China’s gold buying if looked at in isolation. The communication is even less credible given that its hard to believe China still has less than 2000 tonnes of accumulated gold reserves. If China’s true gold holdings differ from what it claims, then it undermines its entire gold buying communication strategy and the international reserve reporting data that China publishes through SAFE and through the IMF’s reporting database...

- Source, Bullionstar, read more here

Monday, November 11, 2019

The Real Truth About the Fed’s Rate Cuts...

“What is going on with the world economy?” That’s how Mike Maloney begins his new video, which is actually not about the economy, per se, but about currency abuse, interest rate cuts, and a big fat warning about the coming recession. 

Mike starts with a slide he’s shown before, US currency creation, but he revisits the topic so he can compare it to Switzerland. In response to the financial crisis, the US created about five times the original amount of its currency—but the Swiss created TWELVE times! 

Further, the US stopped currency creation in 2014, but unbeknown to most investors, the Swiss didn’t end their currency creation until just last year. All this from a country that supposedly has one of the strongest fiat currencies in the world. 

The Swiss franc has long been regarded as the most reliable and solid—yet it has been diluted and debased worse than the US dollar. 

The message being, those fiat currencies widely considered to be “strong” by international investors are actually just as weak or weaker than the US dollar, and thus highly vulnerable to a monetary and financial crisis. 

Mike then touches on the latest hot button issue in finance today, repurchase agreements (overnight loans the Fed makes that banks promise to “repurchase”). 

Check out the sudden spike in this chart from Mike’s video.In just the past few months, $215.5 billion worth of repurchase agreements have been created. You’ll notice it was flat for a full decade, and now is higher than it was at any time during the Great Recession. 

We agree with Mike’s reaction when he asks, “What is going on with the world economy?” Why have almost a quarter of a trillion dollars in repurchase agreements been created when the economy is growing, unemployment is at record lows, and the stock market is at all-time highs? 

Clearly, something else is going on behind the scenes that suggests not all is as well as presented. Mike ends with a “scary” chart about interest rate cuts and recessions. He uncovers something we haven’t seen anyone else talk about. 

Follow Mike’s cursor as he counts down the relationship between interest rate cuts and the timing of the next recession. It’s quite eye-opening. 

Mike ends with a four-word warning: “You better get ready.” Are you ready for the next phase of economic, financial, and monetary madness? 

The Fed’s desperate attempts to keep the game going are blatantly obvious, so Mike’s warning is not hyperbole. History shows that physical gold and silver provide the strongest buffer against crisis or calamity. 

We hope you and your family, like ours, will be ready when it strikes.

- Source, Gold Silver

Gold’s Compression, Institutional Buying, US Dollar Ready For A Bounce Up?

This week we review the price movements of gold, silver, platinum, palladium, and the US Dollar index as well as diving into the gold to silver ratio, platinum to palladium ratio, and more.

Sunday, November 10, 2019

How the UK Election Could Pull the Fiscal Trigger for Markets Worldwide

This week Real Vision uses Refinitiv's best-in-class data to let you in on the big conversation about the global knock-on effects of the UK election - including implications for the dollar and bond yields. 

The market chatter explores a potential surprise inflationary boost towards year-end and whether gold will pop again. And the whisper is around what Sweden might be telling us about the economic future for Europe.

Saturday, November 9, 2019

The Fed's Artificial Fourth Quarter Stock Market Boom

Quantitative easing in the United States is alive and well, the markets know this and they are surging higher in the fourth quarter as a result of it, creating an artificial move higher in the S&P 500 as it steadily ticks higher.

This move higher in prices comes in spite of the fact that the global economy, including within the United States is actually beginning to slow down, as the stress of the ongoing trade wars continues to weigh heavily on the system.

One of the major warning signs comes from the US manufacturing sector, which in recent months has taken a sharp turn lower, as recent reports indicate;

Truck and trailer order rates are down between 50% and 70%. General distribution, a proxy for smaller machine shops and fabricators, is off by 4% to 7%. Automotive is down by 4%.

Typically a slowdown in US manufacturing is then followed by a slowdown in US non manufacturing sectors, which then leads to a cascading effect as a full blown recession sets in and takes hold of the economy.

Yet, despite these warnings and the risks that the world faces in the fourth quarter of 2019, the markets steadily and happily truck along, moving higher in price month after month.

This can largely be attributed to the direct, blatant manipulation that the Federal Reserve has been engaging in since the September scare in the overnight lending repo markets, in which the Fed had to intervene and come to rescue, preventing a crash within the banking sector.

Since this time, the Federal Reserve has continued to pump a monstrous amount of money into the system, doing what the Fed does best, throwing money at the problem and hoping to plug all leaks that appear with massive wads of cash.

Financial and geopolitical guru Jim Rickards recently tweeted out the following chart, which highlights just how rapidly the Fed's balance sheet has exploded higher;

This straight up move higher is due to the Federal Reserve injecting a stunning $175 billion in cash directly into the markets, pushing their balance sheet back up to $4.07 trillion, undoing much of their recent work in "exiting" the markets and proving my prediction correct, that once they tried to get out, the system would begin to fall apart and they would be forced back in.

This injection into the system coincidentally just happens to almost exactly match the 4% rise higher in the S&P 500, as the Fed's balance sheet has expanded by 4.5% since the Fed began once again to engage in "Not QE".

There is no getting out for the Fed, this is the system they have created and QE to infinity is here to stay. They are trapped.

This is the system we now find ourselves in. One that is completely broken and rotten just underneath the surface, papered over with ungodly amounts of fiat currency.

Ray Dalio, Co-Chief Investment Officer & Co-Chairman of Bridgewater Associates also vented his frustration with the current state of the system, penning a great article explaining the mess the world now finds itself in, titled "The World Has Gone Mad and the System Is Broken".

Ray Dalio isn't wrong. The world truly has gone mad and it is only a matter of time before the day of reckoning arrives, sending inflation soaring higher, markets reeling and precious metals rocketing higher.

Until that day, enjoy the discounts, keep stacking and keep preparing.

- As first seen on the Sprott Money Blog

Friday, November 8, 2019

NY Fed Discloses Repo Madness Averages $190 Billion Per Day!

Despite the NY Fed disclosing recently that Repo Madness averages (means that some days it's a lot higher) $190 billion dollars per day and not $120 billion dollars per day, the US Dollar Index is rallying and back over 98. 

The Fed's official balance sheet increased another $20 billion dollars in the last week. 

It's now increased $72 billion dollars in just the last 2 weeks and $279.5 billion dollars since the end of August 2019! About 5 months of Fed QT (balance sheet reduction) has now been reversed in barely 2 months!

Thursday, November 7, 2019

Ron Paul: Breaking Washington's Addiction to War

Ron Paul delivers the keynote speech at this year's Ron Paul Institute Washington Conference on "Breaking Washington's Addiction to War."

- Source, Ron Paul

Wednesday, November 6, 2019

The US Only Pretends to Have Free Markets?

When I arrived in the United States from France in 1999, I felt like I was entering the land of free markets. Nearly everything—from laptops to internet service to plane tickets—was cheaper here than in Europe.

Twenty years later, this is no longer the case. Internet service, cellphone plans, and plane tickets are now much cheaper in Europe and Asia than in the United States, and the price differences are staggering. In 2018, according to data gathered by the comparison site Cable, the average monthly cost of a broadband internet connection was $29 in Italy, $31 in France, $32 in South Korea, and $37 in Germany and Japan. 

The same connection cost $68 in the United States, putting the country on par with Madagascar, Honduras, and Swaziland. American households spend about $100 a month on cellphone services, the Consumer Expenditure Survey from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics indicates. Households in France and Germany pay less than half of that, according to the economists Mara Faccio and Luigi Zingales.

None of this has happened by chance. In 1999, the United States had free and competitive markets in many industries that, in Europe, were dominated by oligopolies. Today the opposite is true. French households can typically choose among five or more internet-service providers; American households are lucky if they have a choice between two, and many have only one. The American airline industry has become fully oligopolistic; profits per passenger mile are now about twice as high as in Europe, where low-cost airlines compete aggressively with incumbents.

This is in part because the rest of the world was inspired by the United States and caught up, and in part because the United States became complacent and fell behind. In the late 1990s, legally incorporating a business in France took 15 administrative steps and 53 days; in 2016, it took only four days. Over the same period, however, the entry delay in the United States went up from four days to six days. In other words, opening a business used to be much faster in the United States than in France, but it is now somewhat slower...

- Source, The Atlantic, read the full article here

The Power of Gold in Times of Crisis

While physical gold is a well-known safe haven asset which investors flock to in times of market turbulence as a way of protecting their wealth, gold is also the ultimate asset to own and possess in times of crisis and emergency. These crisis situations can range from episodes in which fiat currencies collapse, to times in which gold buys safe passage across international borders, and even to periods in which only gold can bail out and rescue an entire nation. Sometimes gold even ensures self-survival and can literally be the difference between life and death.

History is replete with examples of gold being the ultimate asset in times of crisis and desperation, where time and time again, gold comes to the rescue and provides its holders with choice and freedom, choice and freedom that are not available to those who do not hold gold. This is not ancient but recent history, history in our lifetimes and in some cases even events ongoing now.

In this article we will look at some examples of gold in crisis, which while distinct to their times and places, contain commonalities, and which illustrate why gold is the only monetary asset that is universally trusted and recognised in crises, why gold is the only asset with universal liquidity and purchasing power during emergencies, and in short why physical gold is the only asset that can truly provide economic freedom and liberty when confidence in all else fails.

Distinctive slim gold bars from Vietnam’s Kim Thanh refinery, 1 tael

Gold as a safe passage for refugees from Vietnam

Following the Vietnam War, the Fall of Saigon, and Vietnam’s reunification in 1976, the southern part of Vietnam experienced a mass exodus of people, driven by a crippled economy, government discrimination and forced departures. Hundreds of thousands of ethnic Chinese and Vietnamese fled to other parts of Asia over both land and sea, an exodus which peaked in 1978-1979.

Those refugees fleeing by sea sometimes did so in large ships organised by people smugglers and often with the support of the Vietnamese communist government. An exit route on these ships was only assured for those who could pay these government officials and people smugglers what they demanded. The price for safe passage? Between 10 and 12 taels of 24 karat gold for an adult and half that for a child (1 tael = 1.2 troy ounces).

This gold payment was often in the form of traditional Kim Thanh gold bars, two slim large bars and one small bar wrapped together in rice paper, making a total weight of 1 tael. While these bars were popular in Vietnam, they were also recognised and accepted across all of South East Asia as portable wealth and so were monetary liquidity for the region.

From Vietnam to Hong Kong – Skyluck, the ship that smuggled 2,600 refugees. Source: SCMP

Although some Vietnamese and Vietnamese Chinese had their stored wealth in the form of these bars, many didn’t and so an entire gold tael banking system arose in Saigon in the 1970s allowing those fleeing the crisis to convert their belongings into gold. Those without tael gold bars paid for their passage in gold ornaments.

Refugees also took with them emergency money in the form of gold tael bars as well as jewelry such as small gold rings and gold wedding bands, all of which could be sold in emergencies. For example, after one giant ship of refugees, the Skyluck, arrived in Hong Kong in 1979, Vietnamese gold tael bars began popping up in the Hong Kong gold market.

Refugees from Vietnam who took huge risks sailing into the unknown to a better life could only do so because they had physical gold to buy safe passage, and because gold is a universal money that can be sold almost anywhere to help finance a new life abroad.
South Korea – Gold mobilization to pay external debt

As the Asian financial crisis spread to South Korea in late 1997 and torpedoed the country’s financial markets, it triggered a currency and banking crisis that decimated the Korean won and pushed the country to the verge of bankruptcy. Rapidly burning through its foreign exchange reserves and with international lenders circling, the government called in the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in December 1997 with a multi billion rescue package to bail-out the country’s spiralling external debt. At that time the largest ever IMF bail-out, the rescue came as a massive blow to the Korean nation both economically and psychologically.

Embarrassed and at a loss to understand how a star Asian tiger economy could implode so quickly, the South Korean nation then did something quite extraordinary and spontaneous by collectively confronting the adversity via the mobilisation of a patriotic gold collection campaign to help pay off South Korea’s foreign debts.

Initiated by the Korean broadcast networks and the large Korean banks, and coordinated by the industrial conglomerates such as Hyundai, Daewoo and Samsung, the ‘love of nation’ and ‘national debt repayment’ campaign saw Korean citizens selling their gold, but at prices far lower than market value. The gold collected was then melted into gold bars and sold on the international gold market.

With gold held widely by Korean households in many shapes and forms, long lines formed outside the nation’s banks and collection points of Samsung, Daewoo and Hyundai as Koreans swarmed to sell everything from investment gold coins and bars to gold rings and gold bracelets, and from gold medals to gold trinkets. All to fix their ‘broken economy’. The items sold even included brides’ gold jewelry, gold doljanchi presented to babies on their one-year birthdays, retirees’ gold keychains and gold watches, and the solid gold buttons found on traditional Korean clothing.

Kim Daejung, then president elect, donated his gold in Sotuh Korea’s gold campaign

And it wasn’t just ordinary citizens who took part in the campaign. Celebrities and politicians led by example. Korean baseball star Lee Chong-bum brought in 31 ounces of gold to his local bank in the form of gold trophies and medals. President-elect at the time Kim Daejung walked into a bank in Seoul donating a miniature golden tortoise and four golden good luck keys. Said Daejung:

”When I think of the patriotism, my eyes almost become wet with tears of appreciation. I promise that my new government will do its best to pull the country out of its current crisis.”

Running over four months from January to April 1998, the gold collection campaign collected 227 tonnes of gold worth $2.13 billion, with 165 tonnes alone collected in the first month January. The collection involved 3.5 million households, representing 23% of the nation’s 15 million households and 10% of the gold held in South Korea at that time, and the gold collection drive helped restore the nation’s credibility abroad, thereby allowing South Korea to fully repaid the IMF-backed debt in August 2001, three years ahead of schedule.

With gold playing a strong role in Korean society, South Korea’s population knew instinctively that in the midst of a dark economic crisis, only physical gold could help rescue their economy. And so they collectively mobilised to donate and sell the one true asset that had retained its value in Korea’s financial crisis, their gold.

- Source, Bullionstar

Tuesday, November 5, 2019

Gold a Go Go or a No Go?

There've been quite the array of excitable headlines running across the spectrum by our great and good Gold writing colleagues these many weeks -- and rightly so -- the yellow metal (were we are year's-end today) having put in its best performance (+18.1%) since 2010 (+29.5%).

And yet from the "Au Contraire, Mon Frère Dept." in looking at the above Gold Scoreboard, price in the broad sense has the appearance of merely flatlining across the last 13 weeks (should you be so inclined to count the weekly dots on the line).

Moreover, we've penned ad nausea -- since Gold achieved our aggressive forecast high for this year back on 12 August at 1526 -- that such price has become Gold's trading centerpiece. Or some might more negatively couch it as trading resistance, because for the 58 trading days since then, Gold has settled above 1526 but 13 times and below that level 45 times, including yesterday (Friday) with price closing out the week at 1517.

Still, with 10 months plus one trading day now in the books for 2019, one can't complain about Gold's performance this year, in spite of (also per the above Gold Scoreboard) the supply-adjusted, currency-debased valuation now being 2981, nearly double present price ... and exclusive of the usual overshoot upon the inevitable regression to that "mean". But until the wee percentage of Gold owners expands, we ought accept a year like this one as pretty darn good.

To be sure, there've been ruminations of Gold tapping 1600 by this year's-end -- that'd be another +5.5% run from here -- yet there are but eight full trading weeks remaining in 2019, the technical resistance of 1526 seemingly keeping the lid on price and further fundamental impetus (beyond now being the so-called start of the "Gold buying season", let alone Gold being excessively undervalued as noted) not as yet driving new buyers to the fore. That stated, from this time a year ago into 2018's end, Gold ran up nearly 100 points (from 1192 to 1285, i.e. +7.8%); but hardly was that on the heels of a robust year to such point. Then fast-forward to just two weeks ago when we cited price as perhaps coiling to spring higher. And yet Gold's journey since then has been only from 1493 to today's 1517: not much impressive boing in that spring.

So given all of that, plus it being month's-end and one trading day, we find the order of the BEGOS Markets by their standings essentially unaltered since their end-of-September rankings, (only Copper and the Swiss Franc having meekly swapped positions). Thus again there is Gold in third place on the podium with Silver on the steps thereto. And "Oh, that Dollar strength!" which is so bandied about: what are they tawkin' about? Look at the standings, chump:

To Gold's weekly bars we go. And from one year ago-to-date, obviously the two blue-dotted parabolic Long trends have been the power moves, whilst the two red-dotted parabolic Short trends rather appear as shallow pauses. And Long or Short, they've all been lengthy, which -- should such typical duration continue for this current Short trend -- Gold ain't goin' nowhere for awhile, barring the kicking in of seasonal buying and/or coily-springy-boingy and/or "The World Ends; Dow Up 2":

What does appear on track to ending is the economy, if solely by the track of the Economic Barometer. Now obviously the StateSide headline numbers are fairly sound stuff given "much-better-than-expected" readings of +1.9% for Q3's first read on Gross Domestic Product and October's payroll data, plus prior months' upside revisions thereto. Also, September's Construction Spending improved. 

But the "inside-the-numbers" data isn't as pretty. For October, readings from both the Institute for Supply Management on manufacturing and the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index continued in contraction mode; the Federal Open Market Committee's favourite read of inflation -- Core Personal Consumption Expenditures -- was one big zero; and September's growth in Personal Income slowed whilst Personal Spending didn't increase its pace. 

As well, a fresh survey by the National Association for Business Economics indicates that business hiring is at a seven-year low ... although a key phenomenon therein is that essentially full employment is making it difficult to find folks not already working.

- Source, deMeadville, read the full article here

Saturday, November 2, 2019

Fed Cuts Rates Again, Indicates a More Hawkish Approach Moving Forward? Unlikely

Once again, just as expected they would, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, marking their third cut within 2019 alone.

However, eyebrows were raised by some of the changes in language that the Federal Reserve used during Wednesdays meeting, indicating that the rate cuts that we have recently come to expect, may be going by the wayside for the foreseeable future.

Interest rates now stand in the 1.5% to 1.75%, which is incredibly low, although still well above the negative rates that some of the United States major trading partners have adopted, such as the European Union who reside in negative territory.

Unfortunately for advocates of an easy monetary policy, the Federal Reserve made some notable changes in their language during Wednesday's meeting, removing the following talking point that appeared during the last few Fed meetings;

act as appropriate to sustain the expansion.”
In its place, the Federal Open Market Committee has instead inserted the following line;

“The Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook as it assesses the appropriate path of the target range for the federal funds rate,”

This is being taken by some as a much softer approach and an indication that rates will remain at this level, at least for the next few Fed meetings.

Going on to clarify, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell went even further, stating that central bank officials;

see the current stance of monetary policy as likely to remain appropriate.”

Of course, these hawkish lines of text infuriated President Trump, who has been on record stating that he believes the United States should be more competitive on the global stage and slash rates to the negative territory, just as the European Union has done.

The markets as a whole seem largely unconcerned with Powell's statements, likely indicating that they don't believe that the Federal Reserve is truly done with cutting rates, as both the DOW Jones and S&P 500 have had no significant movements since Wednesdays meeting in which the Fed took a more hardened stance on cutting rates in the future.

Gold and silver, however, have begun once again to rally, with the former retaking its $1500 USD per oz level and surpassing it, currently trading at $1512.11 USD per oz.

Silver, meanwhile has also moved significantly higher in today's trading session, breaking through the $18 USD per oz mark, which is a major win for advocates of precious metals if it can hold above that critical price point.

Perhaps these moves are more reflective of another key piece of concerning news that was released by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, in which they indicated that they would be exploring a 50 year bond for the first time ever.

This is very concerning and comes at a time when the Federal Reserve is actively engaging in the debt markets, propping up and keeping things running "smoothly", while the budget deficit also continues to widen, reaching $1 trillion.

I personally see the warning signs that are all around and the flashing red lights on the geopolitical global stage, that are indicating that not only is turbulence likely to remain, but worsen in the coming 1-2 years.

Therefore, I believe that the Fed, as it has been so many times in the past, is all talk. Interest rates will be cut again in this race to the bottom, they simply cannot afford to not compete in the ongoing race to the bottom, as countries around the world keep their rates historically low.

This is good news for long term, steady accumulators of precious metals, but bad for the world economy as a whole and savers of fiat money, as paper savings are going to continue to depreciate as more and more funny money is created out of thin air.

Central bankers cannot stop, they won't stop, this is all they know and when the next recession inevitably rears its ugly head, you can bet your bottom dollar that they are going to send the printing presses into hyper drive once again.

- Source, As first seen on the Sprott Money Blog

Friday, November 1, 2019

Should You Buy GOLD in 2020?

Should you buy Gold in 2020? After watching today’s release of Part 2 of Mike Maloney’s new series with Incrementum’s Ronnie Stoeferle, you’ll see why Mike has been ‘backing up the truck’ and continues to accumulate precious metals. 

This segment covers a mountain of topics including real interest rates, recession indicators, declining industrial production, and even a part of Mike’s book that was cut from the final edit. 

But most importantly - Part 2 answers the question “What will the Fed and the government do to try and keep these bubbles inflated?” Strap in because all options are not only on the table, they are highly likely. 

QE4, negative interest rates, currency wars, and plain old jawboning - they’re all here, right now. 

So, should you buy gold in 2020?

- Source, Gold Silver