Wednesday, June 3, 2020

Reluctant Preppers: Wake Up Now, or This Doesn't End Well


Constitutional attorney and founder of the Rutherford Institute, John Whitehead, returns to Finance and Liberty / Reluctant Preppers to offer his blistering analysis of two controversial articles and the developing crisis in Virginia, where citizens are taking a stand against government overreach.

Monday, June 1, 2020

The Next Silver Rally will Dwarf the Gold Rally


Tom welcomes returning guest and CEO David Brady back to the show. David is a Sprott Money Contributor and a big fan of all things silver.

- Source, Palisade Radio

Sunday, May 31, 2020

Dollar Shortage Will Only Be Temporary? Flood of Dollars Coming?


During this comprehensive interview, Jason asks Lyn a lot of questions about the global economy including: the shape of the global economy before the coronavirus and the precarious state of the US Dollar now that the Fed, the US Treasury & Congress seem to want to do trillions more in fiscal spending. 

Is the Dollar shortage only temporary? Did the global economy slowing down a lot all of 2019 help cause the September 2019 Repo Madness problems?

Saturday, May 30, 2020

Can the West Survive Another Economic Shutdown?

We are now entering into the "new normal", a new post COVID-19 age, in which things are going to be radically different for the near to medium term future.

Many businesses are beginning to "re-open", albeit as a shadow of their former selves, including a shadow of their former profits.

Many other businesses have succumbed to the pressures, collapsing under the economic strain that was forced upon them due to the government mandated COVID-19 shutdown, such as Hertz, a company founded in 1918, which just recently announced that they are entering into bankruptcy.

However, Hertz is far from unique, as many other businesses have shuttered their doors as of recently, filing for bankruptcy and throwing in the towel. These include, but are not limited to the following major companies;
  • Dean & Deluca
  • Apex Parks
  • FoodFirst, Bravo and Brio Restaurant Parent
  • True Religion Apparel
  • CMX Cinemas
  • Rubie’s Costume Company
  • J. Crew
  • Gold’s Gym
  • Neiman Marcus
  • Stage Stores, (Bealls, Goody's, Palais Royal, Peebles, Gordman’s, and Stage Parent)
  • JCPenney
  • Pier 1 Imports
Of course, these companies are just a small number of the victims, as the economic sundering is catastrophically bigger when you include all the small to medium size businesses that have also been destroyed during this period of mandated quarantine.

Others more fortunate were able to weather the storm better, adapt and still earn some profits during these troubling times, even if those profits were much less than what they were previously accustomed to.

Without a doubt, even more companies would be out of business, if it was not for the monumental amount of fiat money printing that many Western governments around the world partook in, revving up the printing presses and engaging in quantitative easing the likes of which we have never seen before.

(Image source, economist.com)

Unfortunately, as I have previously written about, the true cost of our governments historic debt creation has yet to be seen and thus, the true damage has yet to be seen. 

Make no doubt about it, this is coming and the ripples are going to be felt for years, if not decades to come.

Not surprisingly, this period of economic slowdown has led to reduced spending for many, as well as deflation in many parts of the economy, as businesses slash prices to encourage consuming spending, hoping to keep the cash flowing.

This however is not going to last forever and eventually, money is going to once again begin to enter into the system, causing a tidal wave of inflation as all of this newly created money inevitably finds its way into the economy.

During these coming years, as the world gets much smaller due to an increased level of geopolitical uncertainty, trade wars and economic strife, it will be vital to have a portion of your savings in precious metals, most notable gold and silver bullion.

(Chart source, goldprice.org)

Throughout the entirety of this crisis, gold and silver bullion have weathered the storm exceptionally well, acting as a safe haven in this time of uncertainty, just as it has always done for over 10,000 years as a monetary instrument.

(Chart source, goldprice.org)

Most notably, precious metals have protected you against one thing above all else, the blatant proliferation of fiat money printing, of which governments around the world have engaged in, in such a grotesque and reckless fashion, doing so to fend off crisis after crisis, while systematically eroding the value of said currencies.

The gains that you see above are going to be considered child's play in the coming years, as precious metals and most other hard assets in the world trends higher and higher, adjusting to the newly created money printing that has flooded the world in the last few months.

This is especially true if the world is once again forced to shutdown come this fall, as many health experts are warning that a second COVID-19 wave is on the way.

If governments mandate another economic shutdown, the likes of which we just went through, forcing them to print more fiat money to keep the system afloat, then it is anyone's guess as to where the prices of precious metals are going to eventual end up at, as I believe that the West cannot handle another economic shutdown.

Many things are unknown about the future, however, a few things are all but guaranteed, given the economic damage that has already been done. 

You can expect more economic casualties as we move forward into the coming months, more money printing and more geopolitical uncertainty.

Keep stacking and stay safe.

- Source, Nathan McDonald via the Sprott Money Blog

Friday, May 29, 2020

The Coming Chaos: Your Money Is Not Safe in the Usual Places



With unemployment surpassing Great Depression levels at 40+ Million, and 10-15% of businesses shuttering, the Fed’s “UNLIMITED” currency debasement and direct asset and corporate debt purchases are propping up stocks to re-inflate the “Everything Bubble.” 


Where is a responsible and wary person to turn for safety in these deep and troubled waters? Andy Schectman, CEO of Miles Franklin Precious Metals Investments returns to Liberty and Finance / Reluctant Preppers to offer an experienced view based on his unique 30-years perspective from inside the gold and silver supply chain. 

Andy also answers viewers’ questions on the potential for gold asset confiscation, the specter of climactic failure of the COMEX market as contract holders stand for physical delivery, and the personal need to prepare NOW during this momentary comparative lull in the unprecedented encroachments on our financial and civil liberty.

Wednesday, May 27, 2020

Gold Prices Could Hit a Record High by Year End. Just Don’t Expect an Easy Ride

Gold prices could reach a record by the end of the year. But don’t expect to see a smooth ride to the top, even as measures to offset the pandemic-hit economy support the precious metal’s appeal as a haven.

U.S. gold prices are likely to gradually increase over time, says Darwei Kung, portfolio manager and head of commodities at asset management firm DWS Group.

An increase in individual investor demand has been “offset by reduced demand from central banks,” as many of these bank reserves are being depleted due to the economic downturn, he says.

Kung also expects central banks to act if inflation accelerates. That could lead to higher interest rates, which can pressure gold. The Covid-19 effect, meanwhile, is likely to be transitory, says Kung. These factors are “contributing to limits on gold price performance in the near term.”

As of May 20, gold futures stood at $1,752.10 an ounce, up about 15% year to date but stuck in a tight trading range of less than $60 an ounce this month. Gold trades 7.4% below the record settlement of $1,891.90 from Aug. 22, 2011, according to Dow Jones Market Data, based on records dating back to November 1984.

The most significant supportive factor for gold is the “amount of debt being created to fund the various global monetary and fiscal deficits,” says Peter Grosskopf, chief executive officer at Sprott Inc.

Against that backdrop, gold is experiencing a broad rally, with “participants ranging from state funds to pensions to [high-net-worth] clients to hedge funds.” Still, the precious metal hasn’t been able to reach record levels, as “all assets are still dealing with the deflationary shock and liquidity crisis that were accompanied by a global U.S. dollar shortage,” Grosskopf says.

The yellow metal spent some time trading lower for the year as investors sold gold in a bid for cash to cover losses in the stock market. U.S. benchmark stock indexes have recovered a bit in the second quarter.

“More investors need to add gold as a protection asset in their portfolios,” Grosskopf says. That will “create more demand than the market can handle,” he says, and with the increasing amounts of monetary accommodation and fiscal deficits, gold could move through its past highs—to $1,900 or $2,000—by the end of 2020.

He refers to gold as a chameleon, as well as an “anti-confidence thermometer” that “attaches itself to themes and…does equally well during periods of extreme deflation and inflation.”

Playing up that chameleon reference, Grosskopf says if more economies reopen and there’s a strong recovery in China and elsewhere this year, there will be inflation, and gold “will do well as bond markets get crushed.” On the other hand, if the coronavirus continues to spread and economies stay mostly shut, “there will be more money printing and debasement, [which] is also good for gold.” Still, that doesn’t mean gold is immune to suffering during a liquidity or credit crisis like the one that unfolded in March, he says.

Kung, meanwhile, expects gold prices to reach $1,800 by March of next year. “While equity prices have risen, we continue to see gold as a good hedge given the uncertainty” in the markets, he says.

Kung thinks gold has the potential to reach $1,900 and beyond over time. Possible supportive scenarios include a persistent correction in the equity market, a rerating in “the long-term inflation expectation…significantly above current explicit or implicit targets set by central banks,” or new economic or geopolitical conflicts, he says.

Near term, Kung sees prices trading around $1,680 to $1,780 an ounce, with a good buying opportunity around $1,700 or below.

Monday, May 25, 2020

Keith Neumeyer: The Silver Breakout is Here


Collin welcomes returning guest Keith Neumeyer to the program to discuss all-things silver. Keith is the President and CEO of First Majestic Silver Corp. 

Keith is seeing an increase in inquiries from big institutional funds regarding silver. It seems the high silver to gold ratio has caught the attention of many investors. He believes everything should trade on real supply-demand fundamentals. As an industry, silver is mined at an 8 to 1 ratio with gold. 

This ratio should correct at some point much lower, perhaps as little as 25 to 1. Keith expects that we will see triple-digit silver. Silver is a precious metal, an industrial metal, but often not considered it is also a strategic metal. 

Everything we do as a human race requires silver from transportation to electronics, and Keith says, "We're not going to produce enough silver to meet the demands of the world."

- Source, Palisade Radio

Saturday, May 23, 2020

A New Cold War? Resentment Towards China Intensifies, Both on the Right and Left

In last week's article, I highlighted the fact that the trade wars between the United States and China were back in full force, with President Trump taking action against Huawei Technologies, a company that has been at the center of the trade wars, since they began.

This was done by blocking a shipment of semiconductors to Huawei Technologies from global chipmakers, a move that unsurprisingly infuriate Chinese officials and of which was followed up by harsh rhetoric from both sides.

Perhaps this move was political, as the November 2020 Presidential elections are rapidly approaching and recent polls have indicated that Americans on both the left and right spectrum are united in one front, their growing resentment towards China for their initial handling over the coronavirus crisis and apparent lack of shared information.

(Chart source, Pew Research)

Whether or not this resentment is founded is up for debate, however, this does not change the fact that it is there and it is growing, rapidly.

As seen from the chart above, approximately two thirds of Americans now have a negative view on China, which is the highest number since polling began in 2005.

(Chart source, Pew Research)

Many at first would dismiss this as a partisan issue, however, as previously indicated, this resentment is shared by both Democrats and Republicans, with the latter tending to be more negative than the former, which is of course to be expected.

Growing Resentment to Affect Spending Habits

Further indication that the trade wars are going nowhere anytime soon and are likely to be a favorable talking point heading into the 2020 elections was another recent poll, which indicates that this growing resentment towards China is very likely going to impact consumers spending habits moving forward.

A recent poll conducted by Bloomberg indicates that a growing number of Americans would be willing to spend more on products, if they were simply made outside of China;

(Chart source, Bloomberg)

In addition to the poll indicating that 40% of Americans would be boycotting goods made in China, Bloomberg's poll also discovered the following;
  • 55% don’t think China can be trusted to follow through on its trade-deal commitments signed in January to buy more U.S. products.
  • 78% percent said they’d be willing to pay more for products if the company that made them moved manufacturing out of China.
  • 66% said they favor raising import restrictions over the pursuit of free-trade deals as a better way to boost the U.S. economy.
This is a growing trend that is likely creating great uncertainty within the Chinese government, given the fact that a very large percentage of their economy relies on exporting Chinese made goods to the United States, a shift in spending habits, even minor, could have dire consequences.

This situation is only going to get worse the longer this resentment remains, as it will force many U.S. businesses who manufacturer their goods in China, to shift production to new locations, whether that be back to the United States, or another country.

This will have a direct impact on the bottomline of many companies, hurting them in the short to medium term.

Resumption of the Cold War? Safe Haven Assets Rally

The markets hate uncertainty, and that is exactly what we have at the moment.

With the ongoing threat of COVID-19 and the intensifying of the US-China trade wars, it is no surprise to see precious metals rally once again.

(Chart source, goldprice.org)

Both gold and silver bullion have headed higher over the past week, with silver bullion experiencing a sharp rise in price, rally strongly into the $17 USD plus territory.

Although we have not hit "Cold War" status as of yet, we have undoubtedly entered into a period of "freezing over", now that both the sitting President and general public's opinions are solidly in alignment in their resentment towards the Chinese government.

The true risk is yet unknown however, as it is anyone best guess as to how this all unfolds. 

How will China respond? What course of action will they take and will resentment among their population against the United States grow in tangent?

Things are likely to get a whole lot worse, before they get any better.

Uncertainty is plentiful and supply is no where near running out.

Stay safe and keep stacking.


- Source, Nathan McDonald via the Sprott Money Blog

Friday, May 22, 2020

Silver Soars and Posts Big Gains Versus Gold

Silver is finally gaining on gold, reversing nearly all of its richer cousin’s gains since silver’s coronavirus collapse. It took 125 ounces of silver to buy one ounce of gold barely a month ago. This drove the gold/silver ratio far above its previous all-time highs. It now takes 97.38 ounces of silver to buy one ounce of gold. This is a sharp downward reversal of 22%, over half of which has occurred in the last three days. This volatile price action has all the characteristics of a classic “blow-off.”

Blow-offs in the gold/silver ratio are rare and nearly always game-changing. While the past is not a perfect predictor of the future, we view the blow-off happening now as a powerful signal that silver is shifting into higher gear as it rallies to catch up with gold. This fundamental change in the relationship between these two metals could last for years.

Blow-off tops (marked by arrows in the 35-year chart of the gold/silver ratio above) tend to correspond with the early innings of a major, bull market in silver. Perhaps the one that interests us most is the decline that took the ratio from a high of 82 to a low of 32. This decline corresponded with a powerful rally that saw silver soar from a low just above $8.00 per ounce in 2008 to a high just below $50 per ounce in early 2011.


Data Source: Futuresource

2008 marked the beginning of the “Great Recession.” 2020 could go down in history as the beginning of what could be an even “Greater Recession.” 2008 was an election year; so is 2020. Stocks crashed in both 2008 and in 2020. The events of 2008/2009 fundamentally changed the global economy. The events of 2020 are doing the same thing. The similarities between these two time periods are uncanny.

Silver got trashed 2008 (see chart below) because of its dual status as both a precious and industrial metal. Fears that an economic slowdown resulting from a crashing stock market would diminish industrial demand for silver sent it sharply lower at the onset of the 2008/2009 recession. COVID-19 did the same thing to silver as well. Prices took out key, multi-year lows, blowing the bulls out of the market in both cases.



Data Source: Futuresource

“The Best Cure for Low Prices Is Low Prices”

This old adage — from a time when traders screamed and gestured at each other while crowded in a trading “pit or “ring” — is just as valid today. Reduced demand leads to lower prices. When prices fall below the level needed to cover costs, production slows to a crawl or stops entirely. Supplies eventually drop far enough to cause a shortage. Shortages cause prices to rise again and begin the cycle anew. In a recession, demand for nearly everything drops. Prices follow.

Falling commodities are one thing, but when the prices of financial assets like stocks, bonds, and real estate get mauled by the bear it sets up a dangerous situation. Financial assets serve as collateral for trillions of dollars in loans. Failure to grow, or at least maintain the value of these assets, causes them to lose their value as collateral. This directly impacts the quality of the loans backed by this collateral. This has the potential to undermine confidence in the holders of these loans which tend to be banks – especially large, global investment banks.

Modern economies cannot function without solvent banks. For banks to stay solvent they need the value of the collateral backing their loans to remain stable. This is why the Fed rescued the banks at the beginning of the “Great Recession.” It is why they continue to fire the money cannons non-stop.

COVID-19 has shut down huge segments of the economy, threatening to drive the value of financial assets sharply lower. The Federal Reserve knows it cannot let this happen and has vowed to support banks. The trillions spent by the Fed to break the tide of falling prices due to COVID-19 is already many times the amount spent in 2008/2009. Expect this to double, and even triple again, before it is over.

The Federal Government, on the sidelines in 2008, is also jumping in and injecting trillions more. Classic price inflation may not be rearing its head yet, but it is alive in a different form. It is manifesting itself in gains for stocks and bonds – both of which are ridiculously (and artificially) expensive at current levels. We believe the huge amount of money being thrown at the problem will eventually lead to the return of classic price inflation.

- Source, Silver Bear Cafe

Thursday, May 21, 2020

Poll: 78% Of Americans Are Willing To Pay More For Non Chinese Made Products

A Bloomberg poll has revealed that an overwhelming majority of Americans would be willing to spend more money on products if they are manufactured outside of China, with 40% saying they simply will not buy anything made in China at all.

In addition to these findings, 55% said that they do not believe China can be trusted to fulfil its trade-deal commitment to buy more U.S. products, while 66% said they favor raising import restrictions over the pursuit of free-trade deals as a better way to boost the U.S. economy.


The findings come as President Trump announced that he now feels ‘differently’ about the trade deal he signed with China earlier this year.

”Once the virus came in, once the plague, as I called it, came in, I said how did they let that happen? And how come it didn’t go into other sections of China? Why did they block it from leaving Wuhan? But they didn’t block it from going to the rest of the world, including the United States. Why is that? Beijing doesn’t have it. Other places don’t have it,” he continued.

The President touted trade deals that the US has with other countries.

People don’t realize the amount of business that we do with Canada and with Mexico is monumental. It is the biggest trade deal in the world, bigger than the deal we made with China, most people don’t know and the China deal is kicking in.” Trump said.

- Source, Summit News

Frank Holmes: Every Time This Happens, Gold Stocks Explode


Major bull rallies in gold stocks have been preceded by generalist investors rushing back into the sector, and this is exactly what is happening right now, said Frank Holmes, CEO of U.S. Global Investors. 

Holmes discusses sentiment in the gold sector, as well as the historic bitcoin halving that took place last week.

- Source, Kitco News

Tuesday, May 19, 2020

The Evils Of Money Printing and the Coronavirus Response


On par with the terrible public health costs of covid-19 has been the horrific damage it has done to the global economy. In the US alone, over 36 million jobs have been lost (so far) and Q2 GDP is predicted to be down -43%. 

Our political and economic leaders have been out at the forefront of the emergency response efforts to deal with this crisis. But in many ways, their "rescue" efforts are just as pernicious as the coronavirus itself. Jay Powell, Chairman of the US Federal Reserve, has overseen more than $2.6 trillion in new liquidity being flooded into the system. 

And on 60 Minutes last night, he told the nation he's standing ready with the Fed's ability to print 'infinite dollars' should more rescue be needed. But as usual, no one asked him what the repercussions of printing so many dollars are. 

He wasn't asked about how the Fed's recent efforts have vastly enriched the already-wealthy, while the remaining 99% are dealing with job loss and spiking costs of living. 

He wasn't asked how taking on trillions of more debt will help America recover from its current insolvency crisis, a crisis the Fed was a direct enabler in creating. 

The greatest wealth transfer in US history is underway, in broad daylight. What will it take for the mass public to start seeing money printing for what it is: a robbing of our future prosperity by the top 1%?

- Source, Peak Prosperity

Sunday, May 17, 2020

Nothing’s Fixed: What’s Behind the Corporate Debt Bailout


Over the past two years, nobody knew what would trigger the next financial crisis, but just about everyone saw that it would involve the record pile of corporate debt. And so it happened. Now the Fed fixed it...

Saturday, May 16, 2020

Trade Wars Return With a Vengeance, Radical Changes to the Global Economy Are Coming

The zeitgeist is shifting in more ways than one as the COVID-19 crisis continues to drag on, month after month.

In many parts of the world, the situation in regards to the spread of the virus seems to be drastically improving, while others, such as many of the major cities around the world are still in a precarious situation, albeit getting slowing better.

This is leading to communities isolating on not only a state by state, or province by province level, but also on a municipality level, as those least affected begin to demand their freedoms back, while at the same time, hoping that they do not get flooded from more higher risk zones.

However, this form of segregation and protectionism is nothing compared to what is unfolding on the global scale, as international flights remain ground to a halt, as countries continue to keep their borders closed virtually to everyone.

This is necessary to help stop the spread of COVID-19 and has largely been effective, however, as I have written about numerous times recently, it comes with a tremendous economic cost that we are going to be paying for, for decades to come.

Now, as the zeitgeist continues to shift in this direction, a risk from last year has once again flared to the forefront, the United States and China trade wars, which are back in full force.

These renewed tensions come at a very unfortunate time for China, as country after country have begun questioning China over their initial handling of the coronavirus crisis and what many believe to be a lack of information sharing / warnings to the global community about what was truly unfolding in Wuhan.

The European Union, United States and Australia are just a few calling for a formal investigation into the matter, based on assessments conducted by their intelligence communities.

This of course has greatly angered the Chinese government, who have placed their own blame on others, most notable the United States, who they initially blamed for spreading the coronavirus, a claim that has been widely dismissed by others in the international community.

The true source of the virus is yet unknown, despite the numerous conspiracy theories that exist, claiming otherwise.

However, make no doubt about it, that the two key titans in this battle, as it has been in the past, are going to once again be the United States and China, who have already had hostilities mounting for years.

This has led to recent statements from President Trump, who believes that China is not upholding its end of the Phase 1 trade deal, struck between the United States and China in January, even going as far as to say that he would "tear up the deal".

The Globe and Mail reports;

Beijing agreed to increase purchases of U.S. goods in exchange for Mr. Trump cutting some tariffs on Chinese products.

“If they don’t buy, we’ll terminate the deal. Very simple,” Mr. Trump told a Fox News virtual townhall last weekend. On Wednesday at the White House, the President said he would decide by the end of next week whether to tear up the agreement. And he laced into Beijing for failing to contain COVID-19.

This is really the worst attack we’ve ever had. This is worse than Pearl Harbor. This is worse than the World Trade Center,” he said. “It should have never happened. It could have been stopped at the source. It could have been stopped in China.”

This renewal in tensions initially sent markets lower, as the risks of a full blown trade war once again reared its ugly head.

(Chart source, google.com)

Although markets recovered somewhat, safe haven assets such as gold and silver bullion continue to be bought, with silver most notably experiencing significant gains.

(Chart source, goldprice.org)

Further gains for precious metals are likely in store as well, while pressure on the broader markets is likely to remain with President Trump following through on his threats, taking action against the Chinese company Huawei, attempting to cut them off from global chip suppliers.

Reuters reports;

The Trump administration on Friday moved to block shipments of semiconductors to Huawei Technologies from global chipmakers, in an action that could ramp up tensions with China.

The U.S. Commerce Department said it was amending an export rule to “strategically target Huawei’s acquisition of semiconductors that are the direct product of certain U.S. software and technology.”

This news once again sent futures tumbling lower, with many market participants beginning to finally realize that this will not be the last volley, from either side.

(Chart source, Investing.com)

Now comes the inevitable retaliation from China, with the game continuing on as it always does, with neither side truly winning in the end.

The trade wars are back on the table, another threat to the global economy is here to stay and will likely only resolve itself after much more damage is done, at a time when the world already stands on the brink of economic collapse.

However, I believe that the risks of escalation are higher than ever before, as I previously mentioned, the zeitgeist has greatly shifted in the minds of a significant portion of the population and as protectionism gains in popularity due to the continued threat of COVID-19.

The question is, where will this all end? Will the West bring its manufacturing base home, or will it continue to outsource large sectors of its manufacturing, including medicine, to China?

Regardless of the end result, incredible volatility lies in store and risks to the current system remain everywhere.

Stay safe and keep stacking.


- Source, Nathan McDonald via the Sprott Money Blog

Friday, May 15, 2020

Future Economy: Freedom or Dystopia?


Will our future be one of freedom and increased prosperity, or are we headed towards something more dystopian? That’s the question Mike Maloney addresses in his latest analysis of world events.

- Source, Mike Maloney