Monday, December 30, 2019

Debt Reset Coming in 2020...

Wayne Jett is an accomplished lawyer who has argued cases in front of the U.S. Supreme Court. Jett is also an expert on the Federal Reserve. Jett thinks the globalist-cabal may force a debt reset sooner than later. 

Jett says, “I prefer to put it off to 2021 if possible, but those that are desperate, according to the events that are likely going to happen in bringing them to justice, they may be desperate enough to try to force a currency reset on us or a financial crisis that will cause it to be done in the year 2020 as opposed to 2021.” 

Jett closes and says, “I think we have a turning point in the last few days of this year and then in 2020. I think you are not going to see the President of the United States playing rope-a-dope any longer. I think you are going to see him go from defense to offense.”

- Source, USA Watchdog

Saturday, December 28, 2019

History Repeats: Debt Once Again Poses a Major Risk as We Head Into 2020

As we head into a new year, it is a time for reflection, it is a time for thinking about the past and the future and how best to prepare yourself financially for 2020 and the years beyond.

I believe that we are living in a very important time in history, when cultural changes are occurring at an unprecedented rate, which makes predicting what is coming next nearly impossible to do, however, to not even attempt to decipher the barrage of news we receive on a daily basis would be negligent as well.

It is often during these periods of time that people will do radical things to either get the change they wish to see unfold, or to keep the status quo. I believe that 2020 has the potential to be one of these years.

There are already countless examples of this unfolding in the world around us, geopolitically we live in a period of time in which things could turn south at the drop of a hat and all that is needed to ignite the flames is the smallest spark.

Regardless, as we move into the uncertainty that the 2020's are undoubtedly going to hold, it is during these times that you need to take stock and prepare your portfolio accordingly, however best you believe that to be.

This is not to say that any catastrophic event will unfold throughout the course of next year, the following year, or anytime within the foreseeable future. I, nor does anyone else have a crystal ball that can predict this.

However, there are great risks currently affecting the broader markets and thus our societies as a whole. Some of these are purely financially based, others are due to politics, most are intermingled.

One such example of risk is the current mess unfolding in the Repo Markets, which the Fed as of the past few months has had to throw billions of dollars at, desperately hoping to plug the numerous holes that continue to spring leaks.

This is something that I have written extensively about as of recently, as I believe it poses a dire threat to our current financial system if it cannot be brought back under control.

Hopefully, the Fed will be able to stop the contagion from spreading throughout the banking sector, preventing similar problems from occurring to what we witnessed following the 2008 crisis when banks became fearful of lending to each other and thus causing the system to grind to a halt.

Still, the Repo Markets are far from the only area in which debt poses a major risk to the health of our economies as a whole.

As recently reported by the World Bank, who just released a new book titled "Global Waves of Debt: Causes and Consequences", the world as a global economy is now currently going through a massive period of debt accumulation, the likes of which has only been seen a few times throughout mankinds history.

The World Bank reports;

"The global economy has experienced four waves of debt accumulation over the past fifty years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging and developing economies. 

The latest, since 2010, has already witnessed the largest, fastest and most broad-based increase in debt in these economies. Their total debt has risen by 54 percentage points of GDP to a historic peak of almost 170 percent of GDP in 2018."

As the World Bank states, this massive rise in debt levels has largely been kept in check by historically low interest rates, but for how long can rates remain this low?

Once rates begin to rise in a meaningful way, the whole charade begins to crumble and the house of debt comes crashing down, causing a monstrous financial disaster in the process.

Despite the reality that we now live in and the financial risk that surround us, gold and silver bullion continue to trade around the $1500 and $18 per ounce mark, which I believe the future is going to deem to be laughably cheap once looked back upon.

Eventually the broader markets are also going to come to this realization and precious metals are once again going to be brought back into the limelight, being bought at a feverish pace, causing prices to catapult higher.

Whether or not 2020 is the year that the debt bomb finally counts down to zero and explodes is yet unknown, but one thing is certain is that the fundamentals for owning precious metals has never looked better, of that I have no doubt.

Saturday, December 21, 2019

Repo Markets a Mess, Impeachment Crisis Pending, Everything is Fine

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell states that the markets are doing great, things are moving along nicely and the economy is growing at a healthy pace, this is great news and clearly the stock market reflects this very much "real" reality.

As can be seen from the charts above, the S&P 500 seems to agree with the Fed Chairman's very much true assessment of the current state of the US and global economies, with the S&P 500 continuing to make and trade at all time highs.

Of course, this is going to continue on forever, as currently nothing, absolutely nothing is on the near, medium, or even long term horizon that could possibly derail this very much real, not artificially inflated stock market rally.

That is until you take your rose colored glasses off and actually take a look at what is going on in the world around you.

Extensively, I have followed the ongoing trade wars between the United States and China and although some short term resolution may "possibly" be in order, this dire situation is far from over and even the initial compromises appear to be riddled with problems, problems that are not going to be silenced and are likely to flare back to the forefront as we head into the 2020 elections.

However, I believe this threat takes a back seat in comparison to the ongoing affliction that is affecting the vital overnight repo markets, an affliction that is keeping the Federal Reserve up late at night, despite their seemingly calm demeanor when they jawbone to the general public.

(Source, Bloomberg)

Does this look normal to you?

This historic expansion of the Federal Reserve balance sheet is occurring at the fastest rate ever, even faster than the months following the 2008 crisis and the massive Quantitative Easing programs that followed when the Fed began to intervene, placing a bandage on the gaping wounds that were done to the economy, wounds that were never allowed to properly heal because the sickness was only ever masked over, not cured.

The Fed is becoming the market in the overnight repo markets, as financial institutions once again become weary of each other, sparking similar concerns to the days following the 2008 collapse.

Contagion is a very real risk and the Fed knows this, that is exactly why they are taking such drastic measuring, revving up the printing presses to maximum capacity.

President Trump is also engaging in similar double speak as the Federal Reserve, on the one hand, praising how great things appear to be on the surface, which as shown above, they appear to be at face value, while at the same time calling for lower interest rates and encouraging the Fed to openingly enact a new, proper Quanitative Easing program.

Taking to twitter, President Trump stated the following, once again targeting the Fed;

“It would be sooo great if the Fed would further lower interest rates and quantitative ease. The Dollar is very strong against other currencies and there is almost no inflation. This is the time to do it. Exports would zoom!”

Of course, he knows that his chances of re-election depend greatly on two things, whether or not the economy "remains" strong at face value and also whether or not he is impeached.

The latter of these risks for President Trump is currently unfolding in real time and at the time of writing, a vote by the House on whether or not to proceed with impeachment is set to soon take place.

This scenario creates extreme uncertainty and anxiety for many within the United States and around the world, as this move could have major ramifications that would be felt for years to come.

Republicans believe that the Democratic party is simply trying to undo the 2016 elections and they are not going to forget anytime soon this slight against them.

Unfortunately for President Trump, it is very likely that the Democratic party controlled House is going to vote yes on impeachment. 

However, fortunately for him, the Senate, which is controlled by Republicans is incredibly unlikely to move forward with impeachment.

This leaves the choice up to voters in 2020, which in my opinion leans heavily towards a Trump re-election if the Fed can continue to keep the repo markets together and stem the current bleeding that is occurring. 

Whether or not they can is yet to be seen.

Yet, gold and silver bullion continue to have a heavy lid placed upon them, even opening sharply lower in today's trading session, despite all of the risks mentioned above and despite the fact that common sense would dictate that they should be moving higher.

Risks abound and uncertainty reigns supreme, but worry not...

"Everything is fine".

- As first seen on the Sprott Money Blog

Friday, December 20, 2019

Wolf Street Report: Is the Corporate Debt Bubble Ripe Yet?

What does it mean when the Fed and other central banks jointly bemoan the effects of their own policies? Worried about not being able to keep all the plates spinning?

Thursday, December 19, 2019

Bill Holter: Gold Market Fraudulent Cannot Deliver 5,900 Tons

Is a default in the gold market coming soon? Financial writer and precious metals expert Bill Holter says, “It’s already happened. It’s already happened. They can’t deliver. 

Just this month alone, in December, there are 41 tons (of gold) standing for delivery. I think they (COMEX) only have 37 tons to deliver on. You will not see the movement inside COMEX showing delivery. The 37 tons will not be eaten into to deliver. Are they paying a 25% premium to settle in cash? 

Who knows, it’s totally shrouded. You know by sheer size of the numbers that 5,900 tons, in less than one year, for delivery, that’s fraudulent. I hope COMEX or CME sues me because then we get into discovery. 

I am sure there are 10,000 lawyers that would do this on a pro-bono basis just to get to the truth.” When will this market blow up? Holter says, “I don’t know, you can’t ask me how long because this thing should have blown up years ago. 

When will it blow up? I can’t tell you, but I can tell you mathematically it cannot sustain.”

- Source, USA Watchdog

Tuesday, December 17, 2019

Fund Manager: Junior Exploration Stocks Are Generationally Undervalued

Gold and silver are set up potentially for an explosive move, fueled by the inevitable escalation of Central Bank money printing. The Federal Reserve has led the charge on this account over the last three months as the financial system has begun to veer off the rails.

Currently, the Fed is printing money at the fastest rate in its history. The brown stuff is hitting the fan blades in the financial system. By mid-January the Fed’s balance will be close its all-time high. Fiat currency devaluation aka QE aka money printing is like rocket fuel for gold and silver.

A lot of mining stock analysts are drooling over the charts of the large cap stocks. And kudos to Crescat Capital for sharing the chart of above (with my edit in yellow). But the junior exploration “venture capital” stocks are the most undervalued relative to the prices of gold and silver in at least the last 19 years, which is the amount of time I’ve been involved in the precious metals sector.

Last Thursday gold spiked up $14 before the stock market opened. But when Trump tweeted that a trade war “Phase 1” deal was close, gold went $20 of the cliff. However, February gold closed flat vs Wednesday’s close and March silver has reclaimed the $17 level. It’s a big positive that the “Phase 1” trade deal was signed because now Trump won’t have the ability to jerk the markets around with his silly “positive trade talks” tweets.

More important to the gold bull market, the Fed once again expanded the repo money printing QE operations. Early today (Thursday, December 12th) the Fed announced an additional $275 billion in repo operations around year-end. Adding all of it up, the Fed will be pumping half a trillion dollars into the repo system over year-end. This is unequivocally due to bank assets melting down and the need to finance new Treasury debt issuance.

The Fed’s re-liquification program will be given creative names – anything but “QE.” It started off with “balance sheet expansion” but that term was abandoned because of its transparency. The best one I’ve heard so far is “yield curve capping operation.” Watching Jerome Powell try to camouflage the Fed’s money printing is like watching a baby smoke a cigarette.

It’s a good bet that eventually the repo activity will be converted into a permanent “QE” money printing program. The best way to make this wager is via the precious metals sector.

- Source, Dave Kranzler

Sunday, December 15, 2019

Five Key Tips for Your 2020 Portfolio to Succeed

How should you invest your cash? What investment principles should you be following? Tracie McMillion, Head of Global Asset Allocation Strategy at Wells Fargo, breaks it down.

- Source, Kitco News

Saturday, December 14, 2019

The Fed's Recent "Not QE" is "Not Working" And People Are Starting to Notice

The alarm bells are ringing all across the financial industry and finally, the mainstream media is starting to take notice of just how big of a mess the repo markets truly are.

The Federal Reserve, since riding in on their white horses in mid-September have been tossing money at the repo markets, hoping to stabilize and fix the problems that are ailing it, but unfortunately for them, things don't appear to be getting any better, but worse.

Just like after the 2008 crisis unfolded, banks are seemingly uncomfortable lending money to this space and the strain is starting to be felt as the Federal Reserve has been forced to balloon their balance sheet once again, throwing over $300 billion at the repo markets in just three short months.


I have been watching this train wreck unfold since it began, and have written a number of articles on how the Fed's statement that this is "not QE", is completely and utterly laughable, as the expansion of their balance sheet is happening at such a rapid velocity, that it is now occurring at a faster rate than the immediate months following the announcement of QE2 and QE3!

This is truly staggering and the fact that the mainstream media is just now taking notice is an indication of just how asleep at the wheel they have been for the past three months, blissfully content with the Fed printing copious amounts of money out of thin air, and dousing the raging flames that have seemingly engulfed the vital overnight repo markets, the markets that help keep the treasury markets and so many others operating smoothly on a daily basis.

However, they are asleep no longer and a quick google search of the amount of articles covering just how big of a mess the repo markets currently are will make your head spin.

Everyone and I mean everyone seems to of now caught on to what is unfolding and they are worried.

This is leading many to speculate that QE4 may soon be on the way, possibly as soon as before the year ends, that's just how dire things have become.

CNBC reports;

“If we’re right about funding stresses, the Fed will be doing ‘QE4’ by year-end,” Pozsar wrote. “Treasury yields can spike into year-end, and the Fed will have to shift from buying bills to buying what’s on sale – coupons.”

Forbes also seems to agree;

"Others see QE4 happening sooner rather than later. In a research report this week, Credit Suisse analyst Zoltan Pozasar told investors that, in order to calm short-term funding markets, the Fed will need to implement another round of quantitative easing “by year-end”—which is only three weeks away."

Other articles written by Barrons, The Washing Post and countless other sources also all seem to agree that whatever is currently unfolding in the repo markets is not good and a more serious approach is needed and needed soon.

Call it what they want, however, I believe history is going to show that QE4 is not going to begin at the end of 2019, nor the beginning of 2020, nor even later that year, but that it has already begun. 

QE4 began with the Federal Reserves massive injections into the repo markets in September 2019, despite the Fed's absurd claim that an accumulation of over $300 billion in debt, within three months, is "not QE".

The question is, how much more will they accumulate? How much more before they can put out this debt garbage fire and how many more digital, fiat dollars are going to be created out of thin air before the pain stops?

Who knows. But one thing that I do know is that this isn't over yet. Far from it.

Keep stacking.

- As first seen on the Sprott Money Blog

Friday, December 13, 2019

The Fed is Getting Desperate, QE Explosion Incoming

The latest from the Federal Reserve, and the trade talks - are they connected? Why the lift in repo transactions ahead?

- Source, Walk the World

Wednesday, December 11, 2019

Making Sense Of A Crazy Week In Gold, Silver, Markets & Economy

From the trade deal/no trade deal drama to the nail-biting moves in the dollar, the stock market, and gold & silver, this week's been quite the rollercoaster ride! Still, it was very important for the markets and the economy, for many reasons...

- Source, Silver Doctors

Monday, December 9, 2019

The real gold price rally hasn’t even started yet, says analyst who called $1,500

As long as the monetary base keeps growing, gold prices will keep rising, says E.B. Tucker, director of Metalla Royalty & Streaming. 

“The [monetary base] is never going to go down,” he said. “Gold is not a way to speculate and make a big profit, it’s a way to protect your wealth. It’s wealth insurance.”

- Source, Kitco News

Wednesday, December 4, 2019

The Big Conversation: What Emerging Markets Are Saying About Growth

This week Real Vision uses Refinitiv's best-in-class data to let you in on the big conversation about the signals being given by emerging market currencies. 

The market chatter looks at the potential for the US to escalate trade tensions with Europe. And the whisper looks at what to expect from incoming ECB president Christine Lagarde.

Monday, December 2, 2019

Catherine Austin Fitts: Deceleration of Dollar Integrity Significant and Serious

What adds to the uncertainty of the U.S. dollar is the “missing” $21 trillion that was discovered by Dr. Mark Skidmore and analyzed and recognized as a huge problem by Catherin Austin Fitts, publisher of the popular Solari Report. 

Also, analysis Fitts has done on the government making the “missing money” a “national security issue” with FASAB rule 56 (Federal Accounting Standards Advisory Board) makes the secret money a hidden horror the general public is totally unaware of. Fitts explains, “The dollar is under pressure because we have been talking about the ‘missing money’ and FASAB rule 56, and the dollar is not what it used to be. 

If you look at the integrity behind the dollar, it’s not there. If you read “The Real Game of Missing Money,” which we did this big article for investors to do due diligence, the arrangements behind the dollar and the Treasury market do not have integrity. The deceleration of the integrity of the dollar is very significant and serious.

You’ve got to be more resilient, and it’s not just finances, you’ve got to be more resilient in terms of safety. If we have this kind of breakdown with the rule of law with FASAB rule 56, it’s not going to take long before it breaks into your neighborhood.”

- Source, USA Watchdog

Saturday, November 30, 2019

Preparing for the Coming Storm: Poland Repatriates 100 Tonnes of Gold from Bank of England

It was just last week that I highlighted how a new Central Bank, albeit much smaller than some of the current key players, has entered into the precious metals market, drastically increasing their gold reserves in the process.

This new player was Serbia, who stated that they are hoping to increase their gold reserves in the face of mounting geopolitical uncertainty, uncertainty that seems to only be getting worse, not better with each passing day.

In just one month, Serbia increased their gold reserves by 1/3rd, by adding 9 tonnes of gold in that short window of time. This may not seem like a lot compared to some of the largest gold players, but to Serbia, it was a massive acquirement and is likely only just the beginning.

Not to be outdone, one of the rising stars in the precious metals space, Poland has announced another move that has surprised many in the bullion markets, while others simply nod their heads, acknowledging the trend that is now solidifying within the physical bullion markets.

The Central Bank’s governor, Adam Glapinski, announced on Monday that Poland had repatriated 100 tonnes of its gold from the Bank of England, while stating the following;

"The gold symbolizes the strength of the country,”

Also, Glapinski stated that Poland could sell these gold reserves for "billions" in profit, but had no intentions of doing so, as they are looking to increase their position in the yellow metal, not decrease.

The Central Bank of Poland has also stated that they will be repatriated more gold, of which roughly half is still held by the Central Bank of England, as they deem needed.

Taking to twitter, Poland showcased their recently returned wealth in a photo op;

The previous mentioned statement, indicating that the gold they repatriated from the UK symbolizes the strength of the country, is one that bears great mention, as it is a lesson that many in the financial industry have sadly forgotten, as gold has been a bulwark in times of great unrest and geopolitical uncertainty, times such as those that we now find ourselves living in.

Poland, along with Russia, China, Hungary, India, Serbia and many others are not ignorant of this fact and it is exactly why so many of these Central Banks are gobbling up every ounce of gold bullion that they can get their hands on, while tossing away as many fiat US dollars as they can.

They know that in the end, when the "you know what" hits the fan, that it is gold bullion that will offer protection, not fiat money, as it has been since golds inception into mankinds financial history, a history that spans over 10,000 years.

Unfortunately, these risks do indeed appear to be growing once again, as the situation with the China / US trade wars once again took a turn for the worse, after this week's event saw the United States sign the "Hong Kong Democracy Bill", a move that has "infuriated" Chinese officials and one that they vow will cause retaliation, although they have not stated what that retaliation will be as of yet.

Additional, with President Trump completely bogged down with the Impeachment circus show, talks with North Korea have all but evaporated, as the administration is too focused on dealing with the battering ram at their door, rather than what is outside of their immediate line of sight.

This has caused North Korea to once again lash out as they feel like they are being ignored, firing numerous test missiles over the last few days, once again raising tensions with neighboring countries and the world at large.

With all of the current nonsense unfolding around the world, more Central Banks around the world, especially those in the West should be following the example being set forth by net gold positive Central Banks, such as those in Russia, China, Poland and others.

Gold is needed now, gold will be needed in the future. It is the ultimate insurance policy and individuals who act before it is needed will be protected from the coming storm, those who don't, risk being washed away. 

Prepare accordingly. Keep stacking.

- As first seen on the Sprott Money Blog

Wednesday, November 27, 2019

How to Hold Your IRA Outside of the System

You've worked hard and spent a big part of your life blood, sweat, and tears building up a retirement account. You may want to get some or all of your retirement saving out of the banks, out of Wall Street, out of stocks, out of bonds, and out of brokerage houses. 

But how can you protect your hard-earned nest egg from the whims of the stock and bond market bubbles, trade wars, and risk of banking collapse? 

You might be glad to learn that a decades-old tax law provides for ordinary people to protect their retirement savings outside the system, such as in gold & silver, cryptos, or real-estate, by following IRS guideline that you're not being told about! 

Will Lehr, managing partner of Perpetual Assets, returns to Reluctant Preppers to outline the proven path to protecting yourself by taking advantage of this little-known legal provision for holding & managing your own investments outside the banking or Wall Street system!

Monday, November 25, 2019

Ron Paul: Federal Reserve, the Enemy of Liberty and Prosperity

Ron Paul breaks down the extreme manipulation of the Federal Reserve in the open markets. He states that they are the enemy of the free people and prosperity.

Can the Federal Reserve solve the upcoming financial crisis, or are they simply the problem?

Ron Paul breaks down the current manipulation of the system and the ramifications that it is going to have in the future.

- Source, Ron Paul

Saturday, November 23, 2019

Serbia Significantly Expands Gold Reserves Due to Increased Geopolitical Uncertainty

The Federal Reserve continues to pump liquidity into the markets, rapidly expanding their balance sheets and flooding the system with cheap money. 

This comes in spite of the fact they state the markets are currently "healthy" and that all is good for the time being.

Many may be lulled to sleep and put to ease by this double speak, however, there are many others around the globe that are not viewing the current state of affairs through rose colored glasses and are doing the smart thing, preparing for the inevitable crisis that is currently brewing, lying in wait just below the surface.

Easy money and quantitative easing has kept the markets artificially inflated for the last few years, leading to a booming economy for those who have had the luxury of taking advantage of this scenario, while others have been left behind in the dust, languishing and never fully recovering from the 2008 crisis, a crisis that has only been papered over.

Adding to this problem is the fact that we are currently living in a period of great geopolitical unrest, even if most people in the West are largely unaware of the incredibly volatile position the world now finds itself in.

Trade wars are commonplace, as the old norms of trade continue to break down. President Trump has taken a sledge hammer to past traditions, as he attempts to establish his "America First" policy, hoping that in the long run it will place the United States in a much stronger position.

Whether or not you believe this to be working largely depends on which side of the political spectrum you find yourself on, a spectrum that seemingly continues to grow further and further apart with each passing day, largely driven by the constant negative and incredibly biased coverage coming from the Mainstream Media.

While the West largely remains asleep at the wheel, happily plowing their hard earned fiat savings into a ballooning stock market, ignoring the vital protection of precious metals in these precarious times, others around the world are waking up and taking appropriate measures.

Countries such as Russia and China have been steadily and consistently accumulating precious metals while exciting their US dollar positions.

Collectively, already, both Russia and China combined have bought a staggering 251 tonnes of gold in 2019 alone! With the formers gold reserves now estimated to be at $109.5 billion, making them a true juggernaut in the precious metals arena.

Other countries, such as India, Poland, Hungary, Turkey and many others have also been accumulating the king of metals, steadily adding to their gold reserves, while exiting out of their USD reserve positions as well.

Now we can add one more name to that list, with Serbia recently announcing that they have been buying gold bullion, with their Central Bank being instructed to do so by their President, Aleksandar Vucic.

As reported by Russia Today;

"Central bank Governor Jorgovanka Tabakovic said the country paid about $434 million for the gold it bought last month, or $1,503 an ounce. Tabakovic said the acquisition is the latest in a series of moves to shore up financial stability by changing the structure of foreign debt and increasing the share of dinars and euros."

President Aleksandar Vucic gives his reasoning for entering into the precious metals space;

“I think we’ll continue doing that because of what we see in which direction the crisis in the world is moving,”

As indicated, he can see the incredible uncertainty that the world currently faces and is attempting to prepare his country financially, as best as he can, adding 9 tonnes of gold reserves last month.

This expands Serbias gold reserves by almost 1/3rd in just one month, bringing their total reported reserves to 30 tonnes of gold bullion.

Eventually, there is going to be a breaking point, in which the physical markets can no longer handle the demand from these countries hoping to expand their gold reserves and protect themselves. 

At this point the flood gates are going to be kicked open and the dam that has been artificially holding precious metals back is going to break, sending prices catapulting higher.

When this day will come is unknown, as the "powers to be" have already proven just how capable they are with keeping a lid on gold and silver prices, however, I have no doubt that the day will eventually come.

Until this day, enjoy the discounts and keep stacking knowing that eventually you will be handsomely rewarded.

- Source, As first seen on the Sprott Money Blog

Friday, November 22, 2019

Will the Chinese Yuan Replace the US Dollar as Reserve Currency?

Legendary emerging markets investor Mark Mobius, founder of Mobius Capital Partners, sits down with Roger Hirst to articulate his contrarian venture into active management while providing a unique perspective on recent developments in China and Hong Kong. 

Mobius illustrates how central banks have altered the global investment landscape, highlights risks with both the U.S. Dollar and the Chinese Renminbi, and reveals where he sees opportunity for growth. 

He also talks about the evolution of ESG investing, and explains how investing in firms based on healthy environmental, social and corporate governance actually produces better returns.

Thursday, November 21, 2019

Tallest Towers & Biggest Debt Deals Warn of Next Major Fall

Pride Comes Before The…? Tallest towers & biggest debt deals warn of next major fall. Walgreens Buyout - Does $70 billion seem high? Knowing when to leave - CEO departures hit all time high.

Wednesday, November 20, 2019

Bill Murphy: Gold Looks Different This Time

Bill Murphy, co-founder of the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA) and a champion for legal and honest precious metals markets, returns to Finance and Liberty to update us on the fallout from the recent action by the DOJ against JP Morgan’s gold trading desk as a “criminal enterprise.”

Tuesday, November 19, 2019

The RISE Of Gold: Will We See Gold Skyrocket As People Flee The Dollar?

Josh Sigurdson talks with John Anderson of Triumph Gold Corp about the rise of gold and why gold and silver as well as mining companies are so lucrative going forward as people pile out of the economy in fear of a complete collapse. 

While recession woes continue, gold and silver have had a good year and it's no doubt that people are looking at history as a lesson when it comes to the historic support for precious metals. 

John Anderson breaks down why he thinks gold will do well in the future as well how companies such as his own (Triumph Gold Corp) will do in a time of great "triumph" for gold.

- Source, WAM

Monday, November 18, 2019

John Rubino: All Hell Breaks Loose When Everything Falls Apart

Financial writer and book author John Rubino points out, “Fear is the enemy in a fiat currency system. Everything is based on our assumption that the guys in charge know what they are doing and that the confidence in them is good. 

You take that away, and they let us see them sweat, and it’s over. There is no real bottom for the dollar, euro or the yen. Their intrinsic value is zero. 

When the economic players out there in the global financial system realize that the central banks of the world are out of ammo, and nothing these guys do is going to fix our problem, then all hell breaks loose.

What worries me about today’s world is that everything falls apart all at once, and there is no way to fix what went wrong.

We have a lot of examples of governments doing crazy things when everything falls apart.”

- Source, USA Watchdog

Saturday, November 16, 2019

Pot Calls Kettle Black: Fed Lectures Congress Over Ballooning Deficits

Did I hear correctly, or have I truly gone mad? Did Jerome Powell, the head of the Federal Reserve actually lecture Congress over their ballooning debt levels and out of control spending?

After reconfirming and double checking, no, my sanity is still intact and yes, the Federal Reserve, who know nothing else, other than printing fiat funny money into oblivion, is actually lecturing Congress on the path that the United States is heading down, one which now sees the National Debt level at a stunning $24 Trillion and growing with each passing second.

The irony is just too sweet, as the Federal Reserve are the kings of debt and the facilitators of this out of control debt, highlighted by their recent actions in the overnight lending repo markets, of which they have been vigorous plugging holes, throwing ungodly amounts of money at the problem and ballooning their own balance sheets in the process.

Regardless of this "pot calling the kettle black" scenario, the Federal Reserve is not incorrect in their assessment, as government deficits have indeed been exploding higher as of lately, accelerating at an alarming pace.

In fact, the latest Treasury Department Report, which was just released on October 31st, highlights just how much the deficit has been growing, with last month's shortfall being 34% higher than the same time period in 2018, hitting $134.5 billion in just one month!

Projections for the 2020 deficit don't get any better, with estimates indicating that the deficit will surpass the $1 Trillion mark, a number that was only reached previously in the years following the 2008 crisis.

This is happening in the "good" times and this is exactly why Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is ringing the alarm bells over Congress's head, as he knows that the Fed will not be able to bail out the markets like they did during the 2008 crisis. 

Perhaps, as the Fed's very own words are indicating, they know that they are out of bullets this time around, with interest rates at already historically low levels.

Below are just a few of the alarming statements that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell told Congress during Wednesdays meeting;

“The federal budget is on an unsustainable path, with high and rising debt,”

“Over time, this outlook could restrain fiscal policy makers’ willingness or ability to support economic activity during a downturn.”

In addition to this "talk down", the Fed Chairman also reiterated his previous position, that the Fed has no intentions of lowering interest rates anytime soon, unless the economy takes a nose dive lower in the coming months.

The broader markets appear to believe this recent hawkish stance that the Fed has adopted, with the odds plummeting for a rate cut at the next Fed meeting.

As it stands today, the markets believe that there is a 96.3% chance that rates will not be changed at the next months Fed meeting.

This is likely to be the case and I would say that these odds are absolutely correct, as the damage to the Feds reputation would be severe indeed if they continued to lower rates after all this hawkish talk of lately and especially after they just wagged their fingers at Congress for their reckless spending.

Still, 2020 is an entirely different ball game and I expect continued intervention in the markets on behalf of the Federal Reserve, continued excessive spending and record deficits from Congress and extreme volatility as we head into the 2020 elections, the latter of which I believe are going to be incredibly violent and nasty, leading to even further division within the United States.

All of this is a recipe for higher gold and silver prices, who as of the start of November have been suffering under renewed attacks against their prices and are thus trading at a discount to what I believe to be much higher future prices.

Until then, keep stacking and ignore the noise.

- As first seen on the Sprott Money Blog

Thursday, November 14, 2019

Harry Dent: What Does Wall Street See that These Charts Don’t?

Wall Street continues to be convinced that the economy is edging back up again after a stall following the tax cut boost and near 3% GDP figures in 2018.

I talked last Monday about how there were some key indicators like industrial production growth and construction spending that were not confirming such a resurgence… at least not yet. And such falling trends tend to be a leading indicator of falling profits.

This chart is more disturbing, as it comes from those very CEOs that got the direct benefits from the tax cuts at the beginning of 2018. Their confidence in the economy is not just slowing, it is plunging!

They clearly and haven’t been making significant investments in new capacity as they don’t need it. The publicly-traded ones are buying their own stocks to goose earnings per share instead.

But are they seeing signs of declining demand from their customers? Are they worried about Trump getting impeached and ending the corporate tax and deregulation gravy train? All, legitimate concerns, which could accelerate the pending financial crisis. Wall Street is clearly not reacting much to that threat yet.

The next chart also clearly shows that earnings per share are cratering as well. Part of that is to be expected as the surge from the tax cuts does not continue forward. But the actual 4% decline in the third quarter should be alarming.

This combination of indicators simply does not bode well for the stock market, yet it keeps edging up. How long can the markets continue to be divorced from Main Street and the real world?

So, what does Wall Street see that these charts don’t?

Good question…

I say it simply sees “more crack” from lower rates and more QE.

How much longer can that last?

- Source, Harry Dent via Economy and Markets

Wednesday, November 13, 2019

Palisade Radio: A Financial Crisis is on the Way & Will Push Gold Much Higher

Sam discusses how 2015 was the bottom of the bear market for gold and why he doubts that we will ever see those levels again. 

Gold may retest the 2016 highs over the next month and then head higher by the end of this year. 

Sam believes that markets are inefficient and that underlying systemic risks have yet to be priced into gold. He recommends investors keep a close eye on the Fed's balance sheet over the next few months. 

Don't try and call markets but instead diversify your portfolio and invest in physical if you believe in gold.

- Source, Palisade Radio

When the Market Crashes, How Do You Continue to Profit?

Hedge fund manager and author Hari Krishnan, portfolio manager at Doherty Advisors, breaks down his analysis of hedging and profiting from market downturns, concluding with his view of the risks and opportunities.

- Source, Real Vision

This is A Big Deal in the Context of the Biggest Financial Bubble Ever Blown

“I’ll emphasize again the profound change possibly happening in bond yields overseas and what that can mean for US yields. The Japanese 10 yr JGB yield jumped another 4.3 bps to just a hair below zero at -.02%. This is the least negative since mid April and is now really jumping. 

In response, the Topix bank stock index is at the highest since April. Last week there was a soft 10 yr auction and today was a messy 30 yr auction. I’ll repeat, for the first time in more than 20 years of BOJ easing, they are telling everyone that they want higher long term interest rates in order to breath some life into their banks. 

This is a big deal in the context of the biggest financial bubble ever blown. Sorry for the hyperbole. Yields are up slightly in Europe and the US 10 yr is at 1.94-.95%.

The October NFIB small business optimism index improved by .6 pts m/o/m to 102.4 after falling in the two prior months by a total of 2.9 pts. For perspective, this number has averaged 102.9 year to date and the peak in the expansion was 108.8 in August 2018 just as the tariff fight was about to intensify. 

After falling by 3 pts in September, Plans to Hire rose by 1 pt but finding the needed help is still the big challenge. With this, current Compensation Plans rose by 1 pt while future Comp Plans jumped by 4 pts to the highest since May…"

- Source, Peter Boockvar via King World News, read more here

Tuesday, November 12, 2019

Forget Current Prices, Investors Need to Add More Gold Now

Although gold prices have seen a slump recently, investors should not take this is as a bearish sign and instead, consider adding more of the yellow metal to their portfolio, this according to Frank Holmes, CEO of U.S. Global Investors. 

Holmes noted that gold stocks and gold bullion are currently underweighted in investors’ portfolios. “When you look at Canada, and you look at the index and percentage of gold stocks, they’re extremely underweighted,” he said.

- Source, Kitco News

Chinese Central Bank Gold Buying, On a Need to Know Basis Only

After announcing monthly gold purchases for ten straight months between December 2018 and September 2019, the Chinese central bank, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC), has now paused buying for its strategic gold reserves.

At least that’s according to October figures from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), China’s currency management agent, which each month announces the value of China’s foreign exchange and gold holdings for the previous month-end.

Given the pause or halt last month in China’s gold accumulation, the strategic gold reserves of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) now remain unchanged at 1948 tonnes for October. But for ten months back-to-back between December and September, the Chinese central bank claims to have added a total of 106 tonnes of monetary gold to its reserves, taking China’s strategic gold stockpile from a reported 1842 tonnes at the end of November 2018 to the current total of 1948 tonnes.

Chinese central bank gold reserves – No buying in October

However, as with a lot of official Chinese figures, there is widespread skepticism about China’s official gold holding figures, as well as a widely held belief that the Chinese state holds far more gold than it claims to hold. This view subscribes to the opinion that China prefers to keep a large part of its gold reserves unreported as it continues to accumulate monetary gold towards or above the holdings of other economic blocs such as the Euro area or US.

A Trail of Crumbs

That’s not to say that criticism leveled against China in not being forthcoming about its national gold reserves could not be leveled against practically all the world’s central banks and monetary authorities. It could. I do not even know of even one central bank that is fully transparent about its gold holdings. Yet in a world of central bank gold holdings opacity, these official gold figures and their trajectories are arguably better than no figures at all. Crumbs to follow a trail. But better than no crumbs to follow.

Putting aside this empirical drawback, why has China decided to pause or halt state its gold buying now? In reality, the Chinese state probably has not stopped buying gold, but rather it wants to signal that it has, to perhaps thaw relations in its ongoing trade war with the US.

To see China’s stop-start gold accumulation and how it announces additions to its gold reserves when it feels like it or when politically expedient to do so, it’s instructive to look back at China’s track record in communicating its gold buying since the early 2000s. And the track record is not a pretty one when plotted on a chart, filled as it is with years and years of flat-lining, intermittent chunky jumps, and at times sporadic series of monthly moves upwards.

In early January 2002, the Chinese central bank revealed that its gold reserves stood at 500 tonnes. Previously, in late 2001, the PBoC had been reporting gold holdings of 394 tonnes, a figure which had not changed since 1980. So where did this 106 tonnes of gold come from and when was it bought?

On the Q.T.

Then towards the end of 2002, the PBoC updated its gold holdings to 600 tonnes, implying that it had purchased another 100 tonnes in less than a year. When were these purchases made? Following this for more than six years, Chinese central bank gold reserves remained completely static. In theory that it, for in April 2009 the PBoC made a shock announcement that its gold reserves now totaled 1054 tonnes. When was this 454 tonnes of gold purchased? In the world of physical gold accumulation, it is not physically possible to suddenly add 454 tonnes of gold to a central bank’s holdings by buying on the open market. True, there could have been a transfer from one central bank or the other, but no other central banks had significant corresponding gold outflows on or around that time. And we also know that the PBoC buys gold under the radar on the international market, such as in London and Hong Kong, using commercial bank agents.

As Reuters noted at the time on Friday 24th April 2009:

“China disclosed on Friday that it had secretly raised its gold reserves by three-quarters since 2003, increasing its holdings to 1,054 tonnes and confirming years of speculation it had been buying.“

So China was buying secretly, on the q.t. Fast forward to July 2015, and the Chinese central bank did it again, announcing that it now held 1658 tonnes of gold. Another six years of static gold reserves from April 2009, and then suddenly a 604 tonne addition. When was this 604 tonnes bought? Certainly not in July 2015. Rather the PBoC continually accumulates gold, and makes announcements about its gold holdings how and when it feels like it, keeping tight-lipped for most of the time.

As the Financial Times noted in its July 2015 article “China breaks 6-year silence on gold reserves“:

“China ended years of speculation about its official gold holdings by revealing an almost 60 per cent jump in its reserves since 2009.”

Again we see in July 2015 that China for whatever reason broke its six year silence about its gold buying, not that it suddenly started buying. July 2015 also saw the PBoC begin announcing monthly gold purchases, something it continued to do until October 2016, during that time claiming that Chinese strategic gold reserves rose from 1658 to 1842 tonnes, an addition of 184 tonnes. The monthly gold buying announcements began, according to the PBoC, because it decided that it would follow the IMF’s Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS) for the IMF international reserves reporting template which requires contributing countries to provide updated gold reserve data to the IMF on a regular basis.

Then why did China stop announcing gold purchases in October 2016 all the way through to December 2018? If you asked the PBoC, it would answer ‘because we didn’t buy any gold during that time’. But how believable is that when China at times went for years without announcing gold purchases, only to then announce massive gold reserve increases? The same goes for China’s monthly gold purchase increases for ten straight months between December 2018 and September 2019.

On paper, there is no consistency in the communication of China’s gold buying if looked at in isolation. The communication is even less credible given that its hard to believe China still has less than 2000 tonnes of accumulated gold reserves. If China’s true gold holdings differ from what it claims, then it undermines its entire gold buying communication strategy and the international reserve reporting data that China publishes through SAFE and through the IMF’s reporting database...

- Source, Bullionstar, read more here

Monday, November 11, 2019

The Real Truth About the Fed’s Rate Cuts...

“What is going on with the world economy?” That’s how Mike Maloney begins his new video, which is actually not about the economy, per se, but about currency abuse, interest rate cuts, and a big fat warning about the coming recession. 

Mike starts with a slide he’s shown before, US currency creation, but he revisits the topic so he can compare it to Switzerland. In response to the financial crisis, the US created about five times the original amount of its currency—but the Swiss created TWELVE times! 

Further, the US stopped currency creation in 2014, but unbeknown to most investors, the Swiss didn’t end their currency creation until just last year. All this from a country that supposedly has one of the strongest fiat currencies in the world. 

The Swiss franc has long been regarded as the most reliable and solid—yet it has been diluted and debased worse than the US dollar. 

The message being, those fiat currencies widely considered to be “strong” by international investors are actually just as weak or weaker than the US dollar, and thus highly vulnerable to a monetary and financial crisis. 

Mike then touches on the latest hot button issue in finance today, repurchase agreements (overnight loans the Fed makes that banks promise to “repurchase”). 

Check out the sudden spike in this chart from Mike’s video.In just the past few months, $215.5 billion worth of repurchase agreements have been created. You’ll notice it was flat for a full decade, and now is higher than it was at any time during the Great Recession. 

We agree with Mike’s reaction when he asks, “What is going on with the world economy?” Why have almost a quarter of a trillion dollars in repurchase agreements been created when the economy is growing, unemployment is at record lows, and the stock market is at all-time highs? 

Clearly, something else is going on behind the scenes that suggests not all is as well as presented. Mike ends with a “scary” chart about interest rate cuts and recessions. He uncovers something we haven’t seen anyone else talk about. 

Follow Mike’s cursor as he counts down the relationship between interest rate cuts and the timing of the next recession. It’s quite eye-opening. 

Mike ends with a four-word warning: “You better get ready.” Are you ready for the next phase of economic, financial, and monetary madness? 

The Fed’s desperate attempts to keep the game going are blatantly obvious, so Mike’s warning is not hyperbole. History shows that physical gold and silver provide the strongest buffer against crisis or calamity. 

We hope you and your family, like ours, will be ready when it strikes.

- Source, Gold Silver