Friday, October 30, 2020
Rob Kirby: Voting for Bread Lines
Easy Money, Low Interest Rates to Last for Years
The COVID-19 pandemic has rocked the world and a historic amount of money printing has taken place all across the world.
This money has been dumped into the markets, given to individuals and used to help keep businesses afloat while the forced lockdowns were put into place, greatly reducing consumer spending in many parts of the world.
Many would argue that this money printing was required, others would disagree. Sadly hindsight is 2020 and we may never truly know what the repercussions of no lockdowns would have been.
However, there is one thing that is for certain in the coming days, months and years.
The ramifications of our actions are far from over and the piper will be calling, the only question that remains is when?
Interest Rates to Remain at Historically Low Levels for Years to Come
"The Bank of Canada says it has no plans to change its benchmark interest rate until inflation gets back to two per cent and stays there, something it says isn't likely to happen until 2023.
The central bank said Wednesday it has decided to keep its benchmark interest rate steady at 0.25 per cent. The news was expected by economists, as although the economy is showing signs of recovering from the impact of COVID-19, things are still a long way from normal, so cheap lending will be needed for a long while yet."
"With more than six months since the onset of the pandemic, the Bank has gained a better understanding of how containment measures and support programs affect the Canadian and global economies.
This, along with more information on medical developments related to COVID-19, allows the bank to now make a reasonable set of assumptions to underpin a base-case forecast."
Gold and Silver to Benefit from Money Printing and Low Interest Rates
In Conclusion
Saturday, October 24, 2020
Coronavirus & the Lasting Effect On Capitalism And The US Economy
Friday, October 23, 2020
The Polls Were Horribly Wrong in 2016, Are They Wrong Again?
I am not trying to be hyperbolic, I am not trying to scare anyone, however, if you don't see what is coming in the next couple of weeks then to put it simply, you need to take your blinders off.
The 2020 U.S. Presidential Elections will take place on November 3rd, which is only eleven days away at the time of writing.
The outcome of this election is going to have a powerful impact on the most powerful and prosperous nation in the world, and thus the entirety of the global economy as a rippling effect.
Therefore, it comes as no surprise that market participants are scrambling to find any and every clue that they can find that would indicate whether Joe Biden, or President Trump is going to win come that night.
Turning to the polls once again, people are highlighting how Joe Biden is ahead significantly, but is this accurate? Can the polls be trusted?
The 2016 Elections Polls Were Horribly Wrong
The reason for this assumption was the non-stop cheerleading from the vast majority of the Mainstream Media, of which was largely endorsing the Hillary Clinton campaign, rooting for her to win and thus providing overwhelming positive coverage.
In addition to this, the near entirety of the polling industry was not just predicating that Hillary Clinton would win the 2016 Presidential Election, but would win in a complete and utter landslide, reinforcing what many Democratic voters already believed was a foregone conclusion.
Almost any poll that you looked at gave Hillary Clinton a 90% plus chance of winning, with some even going as high as 98%! Boy were they wrong.
Meanwhile, in a series of articles that I wrote leading up to that time period, I was ringing the alarm bell, highlighting how the sample sizes for many polls were horribly out of whack and did not make sense from a logical standpoint once dug deeper into.
These biased sample sizes and the fact that many Trump voters were shamed by the MSM into not stating who they were going to vote for, led to the results that we got on election night, which saw a newly elected Donald Trump take office.
This sent a shock wave through Democratic supporters and the polling industry at large, as they had to face the hard facts that they got it so wrong.
There were indeed many eggs on many faces as the sun set on November 8th 2016.
The Polls Are Likely Wrong Again and Are Drastically Underestimating Trump
Although somewhat scared, battered and bruised, it is without a doubt that many people, in fact a large majority of people still do.
Constantly you are hearing polling numbers bandied about on the Mainstream Media once again, being quoted and taken as concrete evidence that Joe Biden is going to win come November 3rd.
Currently, Bidden has a stunning 87% chance to win according to one major polling aggregate.
But will he?
I believe that after four years of President Trump in office, the MSM and much of the political establishment has only hardened in their hatred and resolve to see Trump taken out of office.
This means that they have a hard bias and motivation to see him lose and thus a willingness to take the polls at face value once again, just as they mistakenly did in 2016.
This is a dangerous path to be traveling down if they truly do wish to see him removed from office, as wholeheartedly trusting in the pollsters is a recipe for disaster.
The fact of the matter is, to get voters motivated they need to believe that they NEED to get out, wait in those long lines and actually vote. They need to mail that ballot in, fill it out properly so it does not get disqualified (a common occurrence for mail in voting ballots).
That sad reality is that many people are unmotivated, or simply don't care that much about politics, even if they state they are voting for Joe Biden, they may not carve the time out of their day to put in the effort to head out and actually cast their ballot, under the assumption that he is going to win anyway.
Why bother right?
Trump Supporters Are Very Motivated, But Very Hidden
They have borne witness to countless “we’ve got him this time stories” over the past four years, all of which have ended in frustration for Democratic supporters.
Crying “wolf” at this point is nearly meaningless and people now just shrug and roll their eyes, regardless of how serious the claim is.
This overwhelming negative coverage has led to mistrust and a general unwillingness to believe in what the MSM is putting out.
Additionally, President Trump has engaged in a four year smear campaign against much of the major broadcasting networks, with the most notable being CNN, who he has labelled outright “fake news”.
Trump supporters have had the moral authority taken away from them by the MSM, in a large percentage of people's eyes, to state who they are going to vote for and who they support.
There have been many stories about how people have been cancelled, ostracized and outright fired for posting "pro Trump" messages on their personal social media accounts.
This is once again playing out just as it did in 2016 and is resulting in the appearance of a much lower than is actually there support level in polling numbers for the President.
Much of President Trump's base feels like their opinions are not being heard and are thus oppressed, which will result in a very strong, highly motivated voter turnout, just as it did last time.
In Conclusion
The times are changing and so too do their methods of capturing people's opinions. We live in dynamic, fast changing times.
However, regardless of who wins, I stand by my opinion that turbulent times lay ahead, as neither side is going to willingly accept the results this time around.
Gold and silver bullion are going to move higher first due to uncertainty, then later as the printing presses are once again revved into high gear and additionally COVID-19 stimulus packages are passed
Until then, stay safe and as always, keep stacking.
Wednesday, October 21, 2020
Election Countdown: Sell U.S. Dollar, Buy Silver, and Other Advice from Analysts
Monday, October 19, 2020
Axel Merk: Boatloads of Money Coming No Matter Who Wins
Friday, October 16, 2020
The Piper is Calling: A Sea of Debt, a World of Problems
The world remains steadfast, tightly gripped in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, however, there is another calamity that is lying in wait and is sadly unavoidable at this point.
The debt bomb is primed, set and ready to go off, not just in the United States, Canada, or the United Kingdom, but rather across the entirety of the world.
There is no escaping it, but there is still time to prepare.
Economic Disaster After Economic Disaster Has Taken Its Toll
The dot com boom and bust, the housing collapse of 2008 and now the economic ruin caused by the COVID-19 lockdowns have all systematically chipped away and destroyed the foundation of many economies across the world.
Led by Keynesian economists, Central Banks around the globe have avoided taking their medicine and letting the system collapse and correct itself naturally.
This has been done through their favorite tool of economic control, printing copious amounts of fiat money and throwing it at the problem.
The results of their actions are in the pudding as the world continues to chug along.
They have done what many believed to be impossible time and time again, putting band aids on the wounds and keeping the system afloat, for just a little bit longer each and every time.
But at what cost?
There is a reason why the price of gold has continued to trend higher and higher since these unchecked bailouts began in earnest, accounting for the new level of fiat money injected into the global economy.
The problem with simply throwing artificial, printed out of thin air money at each and every economic calamity is the fact that you are just burying the problem and masking the gaping wound.
The rot still exists and the structural, long term damage to the system still remains. You cannot dig yourself of a "debt hole", by simply creating an ever increasing amount of debt.
Nothing has changed, nothing has been fixed and the debt continues to grow and grow, reaching what is unarguably now, unsustainable levels.
Are the COVID-19 Bailouts the Icing on the Cake?
In Conclusion
Friday, October 9, 2020
Precious Metals to Rally Hard After Elections, Even More So if Joe Biden Wins
The Presidential Elections will take place in less than one month, with November 3rd only a mere 25 days away.
The anxiety, the uncertainty is rife and all around us, especially if you call yourself a citizen of the United States, however, the ramifications of the coming election will be felt all around the world.
At the moment both the Democrats and Republicans are jockeying for position and the typical political nonsensical games are being played in real time, as seen from the non stop appearances of political surrogates from both parties appearing on the MSM, spewing their talking points and pushing their agendas.
However, there are a few things that are all but guaranteed at this point, regardless of which side is deemed the victor.
Political Violence Will be in Abundance
More than likely, neither side is right, however, this does not change the fact that mail in voting is notoriously flawed and has had very serious problems in the past, due to improperly filled or filed voting ballots, resulting in a large number of them being simply discarded.
What this is all leading to is one of the greatest enemies of the markets and democracy at large, extreme uncertainty, the likes of which is likely only going to fuel the radical sides of both parties further in the coming months.
Many are going to feel "justified" in their violent actions due to this heightened level of uncertainty, whether it be through direct violence to others who they deem the enemy, or simply through outright destruction of property while engaging, as the MSM likes to put it, "mostly peaceful protest".
This is going to send the financial markets spinning, as the country attempts to resume stability and hopefully cooler heads can prevail.
Extreme Money Printing is Coming
In Conclusion
Wednesday, October 7, 2020
Gold Silver: Why Is North Korea A Dark Void At Night?
Monday, October 5, 2020
David Forest: Gold Is Still the Best Disaster Insurance You Can Buy
And this year has seen plenty of action in the gold market. Following a 12% drop in the gold price in just nine days in March, gold went on to break its previous all-time high in August. It’s now 32% above its pre-crash level.
Some readers may be wondering if they’ve missed the opportunity to get into gold. But this weekend’s guest editor, David Forest from Casey Research, is here to tell us why he believes this gold bull market is just getting started…
And he tells us how we can find out how legendary gold investor, Casey Research founder Doug Casey, made his millions in the metal…
In August, gold took out its all-time high of around $1,914 an ounce and quickly shot past $2,000.
But I believe we’re just in the early innings of a historic gold bull market.
There are a number of reasons why I think the precious metal will soar to new highs.
Firstly, in an attempt to paper over the market’s insanity, the feds continue to unleash a wave of money-printing unlike any we’ve seen before.
Since the market crash in March, the Federal Reserve has pumped out $3 trillion in new money supply. And there’s more coming.
Intuitively, made-up money shouldn’t solve real economic problems. But it worked in 2008. And it might get us through the current crisis as well.
Since its March low, the Dow is up 50%. Stock markets could glide on and continue rising. In fact, stock prices might rise faster than ever because of all the new money sloshing around.
Crash Protection
But historically, October is a “witching season” for market crashes. It’s almost a self-fulfilling prophecy. Everyone worries and selling can quickly accelerate into a runaway collapse.
Typically, when this happens, people rush out of stocks… and into gold.
But it likely won’t be a straight shot higher for gold. There will be surges and dips along the way, as we’ve seen these last few weeks.
I understand this can be unsettling for those with positions in gold. And I get a lot of questions from readers wondering what to expect in the months ahead, like this one from Daniel:
Will gold stocks sink as deep as they did in March if we have another crash? Why or why not?
If we do get another major crash, physical gold likely will offer protection. Historically, gold prices fall less than other assets during financial panics.
But here’s the critical point: Gold will likely fall initially if we get a crash.
During crises, people sell everything. That includes physical gold. We saw that back in March, when the gold price dropped 12% in nine days – even as the gold supply dropped as mines halted production due to the coronavirus restrictions.
Past Crashes Show What Lies Ahead
As for what could happen in the months ahead, I’d like to point to a couple of historical examples as my second reason why I believe the gold bull market is just beginning.
In 2008, the Dow lost 53%. Gold bullion dropped from $1,000 per ounce to $700.
But although it took the Dow four years to recoup its losses, gold quickly rebounded. By September 2009, it was back to $1,000. It then soared to a record $1,927.70 in 2011.
That triggered a massive bull market in gold stocks. The VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) shot up 257% in just under three years.
Many people don’t realize, but the troubled 1930s were the same. Gold mining was one of the few industries that prospered.
The initial shock in 1929 wiped out many stock investors and companies. And a second collapse clobbered more investors in 1930. You can see that in this chart of the Dow Jones from 1929 to 1933 below…
Here’s another chart, showing major gold miner Homestake through the 1930s. Notice how it took flight starting in 1931, when the big crash was in full swing… ending the decade on a 441% gain, compared with a 54% loss for the Dow.
Gold stocks like Homestake got a big lift in 1934, when President Roosevelt raised the gold price nearly 70% to $35 per ounce. That set off a gold-mining bull market that lasted through much of the Great Depression.
Although we’re now off the gold standard… and presidents can’t revalue gold… over the past 15 months, gold prices have already risen 37%. So I think we could see something similar unfold.
In fact, gold has already regained its losses from earlier this year and is now 32% above its pre-crash level. And GDX is 105% higher than it was before the crash.
Not Too Late
That’s why I’ve been telling my readers that this could be a gold bull market for the ages.
And it’s not too late to get in.
The first step is owning physical gold. After that, consider taking a position in VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX). As the price of gold rises, gold miners could skyrocket even higher.
But if you’re looking for the best way to invest in gold, Legacy Research cofounder and legendary gold investor Doug Casey recently revealed how he built his gold fortune.
He’ll tell you all about the method that’s made him a millionaire… and reveal five gold plays set for 10x… 20x… even 50x gains.
Saturday, October 3, 2020
Peak Uncertainty: President Trump Contracts COVID-19
When I stated last week that we hadn't seen the end of the 2020 chaos, the end of the uncertainly, I certainty didn't see this curveball coming.
Dominating the news headlines today is the fact that President Trumps and the First Lady have tested positive for COVID-19, shortly after news broke that Hope Hicks, one of the Presidents close aides contracted the virus.
In true Trump fashion, the President took to twitter to break the story;
This news has once again upended the already upended and now empty apple cart, as the President's campaign plans have been halted dead in their tracks, as he is forced to self isolate for the duration of the virus.