What Will Stocks Do When Consensual Hallucination Ends

Mike Maloney & Ronni Stoeferle: In Gold We Trust

Mike Maloney recently spoke with Ronni Stoeferle of the ‘In Gold We Trust’ report and had a very in-depth discussion about the global economy, gold, and investing in general. 

As you know, Mike Maloney loves charts, and Ronni’s team has just published a ‘Chart Book’ to accompany their extensive annual report. In this new series of videos, Mike picks out his favorite charts from this summary and dives into the data. 

As the series unfolds, you’ll gain new insights into everything from gold production, the gold/silver ratio, mining stocks and more.

- Source, Gold Silver

What is Needed for a True Silver Breakout?

Although unable to hold a 3% rally late last week, the silver price is still in good shape and investors just have to be patent, according to one market analyst. 

David Smith, senior analyst at the Morgan Report, said that although silver fell sharply from its highs Friday, the price is still holding support at $18 an ounce. 

“It’s very common for attempts to push up through to resistance to fail the first time,” he said. “The silver price still managed to close above $18, which is a breakout on the descending triangle chart.”

- Source, Kitco News

Michael Pento: The Coming Market Meltdown is Going to be Brutal

Economist and money manager Michael Pento predicts the debt bubble will implode at some point, and it will be felt everywhere on the planet. Pento says, “When this thing implodes, we are all screwed. 

On a global scale, we have never before created such a magnificent bubble. These central bankers are clueless, and they have proven that beyond a doubt. All they can do is to try to keep the bubble going.

I am going to make sure my clients are going to be protected and may have a chance to profit from this chaos because it is coming, and it is going to be brutal.”

- Source, USA Watchdog

Charles Hugh Smith: Will You Be Richer or Poorer?

Prolific and exceptionally perceptive author Charles Hugh Smith returns to discuss the insights in his just-launched book Will You Be Richer Or Poorer? Profit, Power & AI in a Traumatized World (the first chapter of which can be read for free here).

The current narrative that our standard of living is not only the best it has been in human history, but thanks to modern technology, is now improving at an accelerating rate. 

Smith turns this belief on its head, pointing out the many and various ways — many of them “intangible” and not currently measured in dollars — the human condition is fast worsening. Health, purpose, social connection, civil liberties, access to natural resources, career mobility; these are but a few examples. 

And technology is actually fast sending us down a darker path. One that empowers the central state, decimates jobs, destroys privacy, and has created today’s “landfill economy”.

- Source, Peak Prosperity

Brexit Turmoil, Rate Cuts, Gold & Silver Strengthen

Last week saw a softening in the price of both gold and silver bullion, as geopolitical risk was significantly curtailed due to the perceived success of the Brexit movement and reassuring housing data out of the United States.

That was last week and in this rapidly moving news cycle, that means it is old news.

This week risk is back on the menu and precious metal prices have responded accordingly, with gold once again trading above the psychologically important $1500 level that investors of the yellow metal have fought fiercely to maintain throughout the year.

Currently, gold is trading at $1503.85 USD/oz.

Meanwhile, silver is also having a great day, shooting even higher than gold in percentage terms, nearing the $18 USD/Oz mark, another key level that investors hope to retake.

Todays trading action places silver bullion at $17.83 USD/oz, up by 1.74% for the day at the current time of writing.

A number of factors can be attributed to these recent moves higher in price, as two major stories are currently hitting the airwaves, one in regards to the difficulty that Prime Minister Boris Johnson has experienced in regards to the Brexit movement, and the other in relation to the upcoming Fed meeting.

Since last week, which saw a surprise announcement from both Prime Minister Johnson and the EU, in which both parties finally agreed on Brexit terms, the Prime Minister has had little success in getting a vote passed.

Becoming increasingly frustrated and having to ask for an extension of the agreement, Boris Johnson has thrown down the gauntlet and is daring his opponents to a general election, of which he is planning to have on December 12th, if the Brexit agreement is not passed soon.

This has sent risk levels rocketing higher, as uncertainty within the United Kingdom reigns supreme once again and people wonder what is going to happen next.

Also providing a boost to the price of precious metals is the upcoming Fed meeting next week, in which the Federal Reserve is widely expected to once again slash interest rates, hoping to spur inflation and keep the economy chugging along.

Of course, with an upcoming Fed meeting, President Trump has to have his opinions on the matter heard and has once again taken to twitter, taunting and ridiculing the Federal Reserve;

"The Federal Reserve is derelict in its duties if it doesn’t lower the Rate and even, ideally, stimulate. Take a look around the World at our competitors. Germany and others are actually GETTING PAID to borrow money. Fed was way too fast to raise, and way too slow to cut!"

Goldman Sachs is just one of many vocal voices predicting a rate cut next week, indicating that they believe the Fed will do just so, however, that it may be the last cut that the markets see for quite some time.

The October 29-30th meeting is expected to include another quarter point rate cut, bringing the funds rate down to the 1.5% to 1.75% range.

This prediction that this will be the last rate cut for a while is perhaps why President Trump is going so aggressively after the Federal Reserve this time, however, I believe that he has little to fear, as the ongoing trade wars are what have the Fed worried the most and I see no sign of that coming to an end, anytime soon.

Additionally, the Fed is actively expanding their balance sheet, as they stated they would do, directly intervening in the markets and providing liquidity as they see it is needed, purchasing $7.501 billion in Treasury bills recently.

This means that ultimately both gold and silver should steadily and reliably tick higher as the fundamentals for both metals continues to increase moving forward, in the short, medium and long-term.

Keep stacking.

- As first seen on the Sprott Money Blog

The Truth On Why Gold Isn’t Going Down…

This week we review the price movements of gold, silver, platinum, palladium, and the US Dollar index as well as diving into the gold to silver ratio, platinum to palladium ratio.

The real truth behind why gold isn't going down substantially in price is explained, plus much more.

- Source, Golden Rule Radio

FED Treasury Buying Again: Gold and Silver Manipulation Explained

Gold & silver manipulation explained, the FED is buying Treasuries again and a lot of them, but they don't want to call it QE...

- Source, Golden Rule Radio

This Needs to Happen First Before Silver Takes Off

Silver has been lagging gold, but if gold can hold current price levels, then the white metal can start to outperform, this according to Jon Lamb, portfolio manager of Orion Resource Partners. 

“I think silver takes off if gold continues to stabilize at these levels, I think you’ll see more interest in silver. 

Gold miners are making a very good margin at $1,500, silver miners at $17.50,” Lamb told Kitco News on the sidelines of the 121 Mining Conference in New York.

- Source, Kitco News

Here's What I'm Worried About with the Everything Bubble

How cash burn machines power the real economy, and what happens to that economy when investors refuse to have more of their cash burned.

- Source, Wolf Street Report

Dutch Central Bank Says Gold Needed For Global Economic Restart If Entire System Collapses?

Dutch Central Bank Issues Stunning Warning: "If The Entire System Collapses, Gold Will Be Needed To Start Over." 

Also, Gold Prices Around $1500/Oz USD, Are Not Helping Primary Gold Miners As Much As Anticipated?

- Source, Wall St for Main St

US & China Trade Negotiations Update

This is a US & China Trade Deal (more like Cold War 2.0 that's far more than a trade war) update. Jason talks about how things are a mess and how at a speech on Tuesday, October 15th in London St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard said that he expects this to go on for years!

- Source, Wall St for Main St

Mixed Week of News: Gold Goes Up, Gold Goes Down

This week was an incredibly bumpy ride for precious metals, as they were battered around, one moment spiking higher, than the next plummeting lower.

The reasoning for this volatile week in not only precious metals, but the markets as a whole, was because a number of key pieces of data were released this week, as well as some major breaking news in regards to the BREXIT movement.

The first piece of information that affected the precious metals market was the recently released US housing data figures, which painted a muddy picture in regards to the overall health of the US housing market.

The United States Commerce Department stated that US homebuilding fell from an impressive twelve year high, with housing starts falling by 9.4%, or 1.256 million units last month alone.

However, data for August was also revised, showing stronger than previously reported numbers, with housing starts being adjusted to 1.386 million units, from the previous level of 1.364 million units.

This data, which initially saw gold bullion move higher, then caused it to fall lower, as overall the general health of the US housing market is still in relatively good shape, due to it being artificially supported by low interest rates, that expected to move even lower in the coming months.

The next major news that would cause gyrations in the precious metals market would be the announcement by Boris Johnson, the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and leader of the Conservative party.

Boris Johnson has been in intense negotiations with the European Union throughout the week, going back and forth on key sticking points, hoping to find a resolution to a problem that has been plaguing the EU and the UK for years.

Finally, it appears that both parties have found a middle ground and are satisfied with the "potential" deal that is soon to be made public.

European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker took to twitter, breaking the news;

"We have one! It's a fair and balanced agreement for the EU and the UK and it is testament to our commitment."

In addition to the above statement, he attached his letter to the President of the European Council, Mr Donald Tusk, indicating his support for the deal.

Backing these statements up, Prime Minister Boris Johnson also made a statement on twitter, writing the following;

"We’ve got a great new deal that takes back control — now Parliament should get Brexit done on Saturday so we can move on to other priorities like the cost of living, the NHS, violent crime and our environment."

This significant news caused gold bullion to drift lower and the stock markets to move higher, as if this deal is truly reached, then it would be a major alleviation of geopolitical tensions that has existed for years, eliminating the uncertainty of a "hard BREXIT", "no deal".

At the time of writing, gold bullion is trading below the key $1500 level, at $1490.58, while silver stands at $17.51.

These current prices, however, are above the recent lows, as can be seen from the charts above, as both gold and silver bullion have regained some ground from levels seen after the BREXIT news first broke.

The true question now is, will BREXIT finally get done? Or will the people of the UK continue to live with this uncertainty hanging over their heads?

Both the European Union and the UK Parliament now need to vote and finalize this deal. With the latter likely being the biggest hurdle to get over, as Boris Johnson now needs to convince both his party, the people and the opposition that this deal is actually a good one and in their best interest.

We shall have to see what unfolds over the weekend, when votes are set to take place. Will this uncertainty finally end? Will the people of the United Kingdom finally get BREXIT?

We shall soon find out.


- As first seen on the Sprott Money Blog

Jeff Deist Explains the Existing Political and Market Enviroment

Jeff Deist gives his thoughts about the current political disunity in America and what that may mean for the markets and our lives in general in the coming years.

- Source, Jay Taylor Media

European Union: Everything is Unprecedented and Totally Crazy

Today's guest, Marco Janssen, shares his thoughts on the demise of the European Union. During our discussion we talk about negative rates, quantitative easing and the threat of a cashless society in the near future. 

Marco highlights why the EU experiment is revealing to the world that Central Bank policy is disastrous for humanity.

- Source, Silver Doctors

The Fundamentals for Gold & Gold Stocks are Outstanding

Gwen discusses the reasons why the gold bear market has ended and how it is different from what most investors anticipated. 

Global currencies are in a race to the bottom as countries compete for trade, and central banks continue to cut interest rates. 

Today's investors are uncertain, and they are looking for a new "safe haven," and that is likely to be gold.

- Source, Palisade Radio

Monetary Inflation and the Next Big Crisis

We regularly look at what’s happening with monetary inflation around the world, but today we’ll focus exclusively on the US monetary inflation rate. This is because of the recent evidence that the unusually-low level of this long-term monetary indicator is starting to have a significant short-term effect.

The following chart shows that the year-over-year rate of change in US True Money Supply (TMS), a.k.a. the US monetary inflation rate, made a new 12-year low in August-2019. Furthermore, the latest TMS growth figure for the US is very close to the 20-year low registered in September-2006.

Within three months of the TMS growth trough in September-2006 the first obvious crack appeared in the US mortgage debt/securitisation bubble. The crack was a trading update issued by HSBC on 5th December 2006 that noted the increasing “challenges” being faced by the Mortgage Services operations of HSBC Finance Corporation. 

This initial sign of weakness was followed by the appearance of a much larger crack on 7th February 2007. That’s when HSBC issued another trading update that included a profit warning due to substantially increased loan impairment charges. Within days of this February-2007 HSBC update, the shares of sub-prime lending specialists such as New Century Financial and NovaStar Financial went into freefall. This marked the beginning of the Global Financial Crisis, although the US stock market didn’t top out until October of 2007 and industrial commodities such as oil and copper didn’t top out until mid-2008.

The above-mentioned events could be relevant to the current situation, in that the recent chaos in the US short-term funding market could be the initial ‘crack’ in today’s global debt edifice. While the low rate of US monetary inflation was not the proximate catalyst for the recent chaos, there is little doubt that it played a part. Temporary issues such as a corporate tax deadline and a large addition by the US Treasury to its account at the Fed would not have had such a dramatic effect if the money supply had been growing at a ‘normal’ pace.

Generally, when the money supply is growing very slowly within a debt-based monetary system, a relatively small increase in the demand for cash can create the impression that there is a major cash shortage.

Now, if there’s one thing we can be sure of it’s that the next crisis will look nothing like the last crisis. The financial markets work that way because after a crisis occurs ‘everyone’, including all policy-makers, will be on guard against a repeat performance, making a repeat performance extremely improbable. Therefore, we can be confident that even if the recent temporary seizure of the US short-term funding market was a figurative shot across the bow, within the next couple of years there will NOT be a major liquidity event that looks like the 2007-2008 crisis. However, some sort of crisis, encompassing an economic recession, is probable within this 2-year period.

The nature of the next crisis will be determined by how the Fed reacts to signs of economic weakness and short-term funding issues such as the one that arose a few weeks ago. In particular, quick action by the Fed to boost the money supply would greatly reduce the probability of a deflation scare and greatly increase the risk that the next crisis will involve relatively high levels of what most people call “inflation”.

As an aside, there’s a big difference between the Fed cutting its targeted short-term interest rates and the Fed directly boosting the money supply. For example, in reaction to signs of stress in the financial system the Fed commenced a rate-cutting program in September of 2007, but it didn’t begin to directly pump money into the system until September of 2008. In effect, during the last crisis the Fed did nothing to address liquidity issues until almost two years after the appearance of the initial ‘crack’. As a consequence, the monetary inflation rate remained low and monetary conditions remained ‘tight’ until October of 2008 — 12 months after the start of an equity bear market and 10 months after the start of an economic recession.

Early indications are that the Fed will be very quick to inject new money this time around, partly because 2007-2008 is still fresh in the memory. These early indications include the rapidity of the Fed’s response to the effective seizure of the “repo” market last month and the fact that last Friday the Fed introduced a $60B/month asset monetisation program. This program is QE in everything except name. In other words, the Fed already has resumed Quantitative Easing even though GDP is growing at about 2%/year, the unemployment rate is at a generational low and the stock market is near an all-time high.

In summary, while it is too early to have a clear view of how the next major crisis will unfold, something along the lines of 2007-2008 can be ruled out. Also, there are tentative signs that the next crisis will coincide with or follow a period of relatively high “inflation”.

- Source, TSI Blog

Ned Naylor-Leyland: Silver and Gold in the Modern Portfolio

The question of whether precious metals have a place in one's portfolio is a never-ending debate, but an equally important yet often-overlooked question is "how much"? 

Ned Naylor-Leyland of Merian Global Investors discusses the role that gold and silver can play, and the important differences between sizing bullion versus sizing mining stocks. 

He also provides his theory for why central banks continue to accumulate bullion in their own portfolios.

- Real Vision Finance

Demand for Gold ETF's Surge as Quantitative "Not" Easing Returns

The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates twice this year, slashing rates lower in an attempt to spur the economy and keep the good times rolling.

Despite this fact, the markets are not happy and they have demanded more and as it now appears, they are going to get exactly what they wished for.

The odds of an additional rate cut occurring within 2019 has surged higher, with market analyst predicting overwhelmingly that another rate cut is on the way and soon.

The reasoning for this is the Federal Reserve themselves, as they have proven that they will not and are not going to let the free market regulate itself, as seen in their recent intervention in the short-term lending markets throughout the month of September, in which they rushed in to save the day.

The Financial Times reports;

"In recent weeks, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York has injected billions of cash reserves into short-term lending markets to ease the pressures that bubbled up in September and sent the cost of borrowing cash overnight via repurchase, or repo, agreements as high as 10 per cent."

Despite these bail-outs, the short-term lending markets are still seen as on shaky ground and incredibly vulnerable to a repeat collapse.

This has prompted the Federal Reserve to take even further action, announcing that they would once again resume purchases of Treasury Securities from the open market, in an attempt to keep the system chugging alone.

At the National Association for Business Economics conference in Denver on Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell explained  how the Fed plans on supporting the markets moving further, however, he strongly stressed that this should not be viewed as Quantitative Easing, stating the following;

“I want to emphasize that growth of our balance sheet for reserve management purposes should in no way be confused with the large-scale asset purchase programs that we deployed after the financial crisis.”

Reiterating this point, Powell would later go on to state;

“In no sense, is this QE,”
Obviously to anyone with half a brain, the above statement by Powell is pure nonsense, as this is obviously QE, whether the Fed wants it to be or not.

This recent softening by the Federal Reserve, in addition to the ongoing geopolitical risks that seem to be plaguing much of the world, has resulted in a massive surge into Gold ETF's as market participants seek the protection that only the king of metals can provide.

ETF gold holdings reached an all time high in the month of September, resulting in the longest run higher in holdings, in the past decade. With the most notable being holdings within the UK.

The last time that such demand for gold ETF's was seen was shortly after the 2008 financial crisis, which does not bold well for what may be coming just over the horizon.

According to the World Gold Council, gold backed ETFs added 75.2 tons of metal to their holdings last month, bringing the total to 2,808 tons.

This surpasses the previous record set in 2012, when gold was at $1,700 per ounce, highlighting just how underpriced gold is at the moment.

Despite these warning signs, signals from the Fed and the deteriorating geopolitical climate around the world, gold stubbornly remains around the $1500 USD per ounce level, struggling to break higher.

2020 is going to be one for the record books and I believe that anything could happen as we head into the US Presidential Elections, with political violence and uncertainty creating a powder keg style situation.

These artificially suppressed prices are not going to last much longer, as the fundamentals for higher gold prices are inevitably going to win the day and precious metals are going to surge higher as we head into an even more tumultuous and unpredictable next year.

Until then, enjoy these prices while you can and as always, keep stacking.

- As first seen on the Sprott Money Blog

What Is Your Next Strategy After Gold Goes Parabolic?

What Is Your Next Strategy After Gold Goes Parabolic? Wall Street cookie cutter investment plans don’t work. 

When gold rose from $700 to $1900 there were five $100 corrections. China & India buying increase whenever gold corrects down.

- Source, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OFcT1Q3zh5MGolden Rule Radio

Rob McEwen: Is the gold price still in good shape and how to stomach volatility

Gold prices may have had a rough start to the week, but the long-term trend remains bullish and investors should not get sidetracked by noise, said Rob McEwen, chairman of McEwen Mining. 

“Despite the last few days, the trend is much higher,” McEwen told Kitco News. “Buy when you have that opportunity, because the momentum is building.”

- Source, Kitco News

The Case Against Numismatic Gold for Wealth Preservation

Little did I know as I ventured into conversations about owning physical gold, that discussing the option of buying collectable, rare, or “numismatic” coins would draw such heated controversy from multiple corners. 

Many of the topics we’ve addressed to help us all be aware and prepared have encountered polarized positions and world-views (cryptos vs. precious metals, vault storage vs home-storage, and online purchasing vs. cash-in-hand private and local, etc..).

But the extreme views of people I’ve encountered who are earnestly devoted to or repelled by numismatic coins has convinced me that we’ve got to take a closer look, and bring this controversy out of the trenches and into the light of open, civil debate to discern the facts and data, and help us all be better informed. 

So whether each of us may hold deep-seated views, or a casual opinion, or haven’t even heard of or thought about the virtues vs. risks of acquiring “collectible” coins, I hope we will all learn from this discussion, and come away better prepared to protect our family’s financial well being. 

This guest, Franklin Sanders, known as “The Money Changer,” and founder of The-MoneyChanger.com, has been in the gold & silver business for 40 years. 

Sanders visits Reluctant Preppers this first time to explain his experienced view of the factors affecting premiums on collectible gold coins, and why he says the data argues “against” buying numismatic coins as a part of your wealth preservation strategy.

- Source, Reluctant Preppers

Fears of a Global Recession Grow, Gold and Silver Rally

With each passing day, the chances of the United States and in all likelihood, the entirety of the global economy entering into a deep recession grows.

The trade wars continue on and as I have written about numerous times in the recent past, I can't see a solution on the horizon, this is bad news in the short term for not only China, who relies heavily on the United States, but also the US economy as well.

Neither party is willing to budge and Central Bankers around the globe are beginning to come to the stark realization that things are going to get a whole lot worse, before they get better.

This is exactly why the FED is cutting rates, this is why the European Central Bank plans on once again entering into a massive stimulus program, as they know that a reckoning is coming.

Confirming this new reality, the World Trade Organization once again cut its forecast for global trade growth on Tuesday.

The Washington Post reports;

"On Tuesday, the WTO said world merchandise trade volume is expected to rise 1.2 percent in 2019 — markedly slower than the 2.6 percent forecast in April. For 2020, the forecast estimates 2.7 percent growth instead of 3 percent.

The revised projections come less than two weeks after President Trump called China a “threat to the world” and said there was little urgency for an interim trade agreement. On Sept. 20, he told reporters he was under no pressure to reach a deal with China before the 2020 election, despite his early insistence that China was eager to return to the negotiation table."

Further confirming this news, it is reported that both US and Chinese manufacturers have entered into recession territory, as the ISM’s U.S. manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index fell to 47.8% last month.

According to CNBC, this is the worst level in a decade, with the index not seeing these numbers since June 2009, when the United States was going through its "great recession" after the 2008 collapse.

Unfortunately, as many of you know, when the United States sneezes, the world gets a cold and already, it appears that the contagion is spreading, with countries such as Singapore reporting that its economy is also "tipping" into recession.

All this negativity and talks of recession, caused gold and silver to plummet lower in price early this week.

(Charts via Goldprice)

Fortunately, it appears that market participants regained some semblance of sanity as the week dragged on, with both gold and silver recovering much of their earlier week losses.

As it stands now, gold bullion has moved once again above $1500 USD per ounce, while silver bullion stands at $17.70 USD per ounce.

These are important levels to maintain and any protracted time spent below these levels could mean much lower prices, however, given the fundamentals it seems unlikely that this will be the case.

Central bankers around the world are now fully aware that we are about to enter into a dragged out global recession as the trade wars continue to go on, with no end in sight.

This means that interest rates around the world are going to be slashed by Central Bankers, stimulus programs are going to once again be all the rage and the money printing is going to be happening at a feverish pace.

In addition to this, the Democratic party in the United States seems hell bent on moving forward with impeachment proceedings against President Trump, a plan that appears to be pivotal in their 2020 election campaign strategy and nothing further, as it is incredibly unlikely that he will be impeached and removed from office.

Even if the House does vote to impeach, the Senate, which is controlled by Republicans are not going to vote to remove him from office, as 2/3rd's must do so.

Unfortunately for the Democrats, I along with many others believe that this is going to backfire on them, as it is only going to embolden Republicans and result in a staggering high turnout for the President come 2020.

Regardless, uncertainty abounds and precious metals are going to take notice as this political theater continues to unfold.

People should not be selling gold and silver bullion as we saw earlier in this week, but in fact be buying it hand over fist in the coming climate.

Expect much higher prices as global risk grows and as QE to infinity goes worldwide.

Keep stacking. Focus on the long term. Ignore the short term noise.

- As first seen on the Sprott Money Blog

The Most Important Technical Indicator For Trading Gold and Silver

Expert technical analyst & professional trader JC Parets says that over the last two years, we've seen the U.S. stock market bear market, and we're closer to the start of a new bull market than we are to a crash, but that doesn't stop JC from turning bullish on gold & silver. 

JC says once gold breaks-out above $1,600, there's no denying this bull market is on, a bull run which likely leads to a $10,000 gold price based on the technical analysis alone.

- Source, Silver Doctors

The Real Problem With Low Interest Rates...

We review the recent BIS paper which highlights the issues with low interest rates.

- Source, Walk the World