I am not trying to be hyperbolic, I am not trying to scare anyone, however, if you don't see what is coming in the next couple of weeks then to put it simply, you need to take your blinders off.
The 2020 U.S. Presidential Elections will take place on November 3rd, which is only eleven days away at the time of writing.
The outcome of this election is going to have a powerful impact on the most powerful and prosperous nation in the world, and thus the entirety of the global economy as a rippling effect.
Therefore, it comes as no surprise that market participants are scrambling to find any and every clue that they can find that would indicate whether Joe Biden, or President Trump is going to win come that night.
Turning to the polls once again, people are highlighting how Joe Biden is ahead significantly, but is this accurate? Can the polls be trusted?
The 2016 Elections Polls Were Horribly Wrong
The reason for this assumption was the non-stop cheerleading from the vast majority of the Mainstream Media, of which was largely endorsing the Hillary Clinton campaign, rooting for her to win and thus providing overwhelming positive coverage.
In addition to this, the near entirety of the polling industry was not just predicating that Hillary Clinton would win the 2016 Presidential Election, but would win in a complete and utter landslide, reinforcing what many Democratic voters already believed was a foregone conclusion.
Almost any poll that you looked at gave Hillary Clinton a 90% plus chance of winning, with some even going as high as 98%! Boy were they wrong.
Meanwhile, in a series of articles that I wrote leading up to that time period, I was ringing the alarm bell, highlighting how the sample sizes for many polls were horribly out of whack and did not make sense from a logical standpoint once dug deeper into.
These biased sample sizes and the fact that many Trump voters were shamed by the MSM into not stating who they were going to vote for, led to the results that we got on election night, which saw a newly elected Donald Trump take office.
This sent a shock wave through Democratic supporters and the polling industry at large, as they had to face the hard facts that they got it so wrong.
There were indeed many eggs on many faces as the sun set on November 8th 2016.
The Polls Are Likely Wrong Again and Are Drastically Underestimating Trump
Although somewhat scared, battered and bruised, it is without a doubt that many people, in fact a large majority of people still do.
Constantly you are hearing polling numbers bandied about on the Mainstream Media once again, being quoted and taken as concrete evidence that Joe Biden is going to win come November 3rd.
(Chart source, Fiverthirtyeight)
Currently, Bidden has a stunning 87% chance to win according to one major polling aggregate.
But will he?
I believe that after four years of President Trump in office, the MSM and much of the political establishment has only hardened in their hatred and resolve to see Trump taken out of office.
This means that they have a hard bias and motivation to see him lose and thus a willingness to take the polls at face value once again, just as they mistakenly did in 2016.
This is a dangerous path to be traveling down if they truly do wish to see him removed from office, as wholeheartedly trusting in the pollsters is a recipe for disaster.
The fact of the matter is, to get voters motivated they need to believe that they NEED to get out, wait in those long lines and actually vote. They need to mail that ballot in, fill it out properly so it does not get disqualified (a common occurrence for mail in voting ballots).
That sad reality is that many people are unmotivated, or simply don't care that much about politics, even if they state they are voting for Joe Biden, they may not carve the time out of their day to put in the effort to head out and actually cast their ballot, under the assumption that he is going to win anyway.
Why bother right?
Trump Supporters Are Very Motivated, But Very Hidden
They have borne witness to countless “we’ve got him this time stories” over the past four years, all of which have ended in frustration for Democratic supporters.
Crying “wolf” at this point is nearly meaningless and people now just shrug and roll their eyes, regardless of how serious the claim is.
This overwhelming negative coverage has led to mistrust and a general unwillingness to believe in what the MSM is putting out.
Additionally, President Trump has engaged in a four year smear campaign against much of the major broadcasting networks, with the most notable being CNN, who he has labelled outright “fake news”.
Trump supporters have had the moral authority taken away from them by the MSM, in a large percentage of people's eyes, to state who they are going to vote for and who they support.
There have been many stories about how people have been cancelled, ostracized and outright fired for posting "pro Trump" messages on their personal social media accounts.
This is once again playing out just as it did in 2016 and is resulting in the appearance of a much lower than is actually there support level in polling numbers for the President.
Much of President Trump's base feels like their opinions are not being heard and are thus oppressed, which will result in a very strong, highly motivated voter turnout, just as it did last time.
In Conclusion
The times are changing and so too do their methods of capturing people's opinions. We live in dynamic, fast changing times.
However, regardless of who wins, I stand by my opinion that turbulent times lay ahead, as neither side is going to willingly accept the results this time around.
Gold and silver bullion are going to move higher first due to uncertainty, then later as the printing presses are once again revved into high gear and additionally COVID-19 stimulus packages are passed
Until then, stay safe and as always, keep stacking.
